Analysis:The warning by Aer Lingus chief executive Dermot Mannion that its pilots will face suspension from next week unless they agree to facilitate the establishment of the planned new base in Belfast increases the prospect of the airline's flights being grounded within days.
However, it is understood that the warning, set out in a letter to all 480 pilots yesterday, was designed by management to bring to a head the row over the Belfast base which has been simmering for about two months.
Sources said that the company believed that a "softly-softly" approach could have left the issue dragging on at a time when the deadline set by Aer Lingus for the start of operations from Belfast was approaching rapidly.
Aer Lingus wants flights from Belfast to start on December 10th. It is seeking to employ about 30 pilots there and has received 400 applications.
However, a process of recruitment and training, which must be completed before flight operations can begin, has been frustrated by a ban on co-operation with the establishment of the Belfast base put in place last August by its pilots in the Republic who are represented by the Irish Airline Pilots Association (Ialpa).
Ialpa wants a role in negotiating the terms and conditions to apply for pilots in Belfast. It has accepted that pay scales in Belfast could be different, but there are disagreements over the pension scheme to apply and on rights for pilots in the company to transfer between bases.
Talks between the company and the union have been ongoing for several weeks. However, much to the frustration of management no agreement has been reached. For Aer Lingus, the Belfast base is crucial to its future development. Essentially it wants to start in Belfast with a clean sheet in relation to pay, conditions and work practices. Such a model could then be used for similar operations elsewhere.
The union has said that management has been trying to provoke a dispute, starting with the pay freeze announced last week.
However, other sources maintained that the new harder attitude adopted by management was aimed, in part, at signalling to the unions that the company was now operating in the private sector and that the old semi-State rules no longer applied. For, in addition to the Belfast base, the airline is also seeking reforms in the Republic designed to save €20 million annually.
In the immediate term, Aer Lingus needs the co-operation of a number of pilots who have additional responsibilities for training to begin assessing applicants for the Belfast positions.
The company had been using retired pilots. These have now refused to carry out such work as a result, management believed, of representations made by Ialpa.
Management believed that the union, while expressing a willingness to continue talking, really just wanted to frustrate the establishment of the Belfast base. On Monday, management decided that it was time to implement the plan.
In recent days it has suspended five pilots who refused to participate in the recruitment process. Yesterday it warned all 480 pilots that they would be suspended from next week if they did not agree to facilitate the operation of the new base.
It had been expected that the suspensions could lead to an immediate strike. However, Ialpa opted for more subtle tactics.
Initially the 30 or so "trainer" captains sought to resign their training role - a move which could have neutralised the threat of suspension. This move was rejected by the company.
Ialpa argued that if the airline continued to suspend the "trainer" captains it would effectively close itself, as these personnel are required to conduct the regular examinations which permit pilots to fly. It has argued that the letter sent yesterday would have the same effect.
It remains a possibility that the Labour Relations Commission will invite the parties to new talks, but without some intervention it appears that passengers could face significant disruption at the airline from next week.