The future of the Belfast Agreement and Mr David Trimble's position as Ulster Unionist Party leader hung in the balance last night as the DUP and Sinn Fein picked off local government seats from the UUP and SDLP.
With over two-thirds of the 582 results collated, Mr Trimble's party had won 99 seats against 91 for the DUP. The SDLP and Sinn Fein were tied on 72 seats as counting centres began to close last night.
The full picture is unlikely to be clear until this afternoon when counting for the 26 local councils is due to conclude. Last night the UUP was down 5 per cent, with the DUP's vote up by the same figure. The SDLP vote was down by 1 per cent, while Sinn Fein continued to take the bulk of new nationalist voters and was up 4 per cent.
Because of the PR system and the unpredictability of vote transfers, it is impossible to predict the outcome. Last night it appeared Mr Trimble was struggling to prevent his party losing 30 seats or more, a result that could precipitate a heave against him at the next Ulster Unionist Council meeting on Saturday week.
The SDLP is also likely to sustain losses but not as many as the UUP. The anti-agreement UUP MP, the Rev Martin Smyth, indicated he might challenge Mr Trimble's leadership but would prefer a younger Ulster Unionist to take on that burden.
The anti-agreement Lagan Valley MP, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, appears reluctant to challenge Mr Trimble now. On the BBC yesterday he issued qualified support for Mr Trimble's July 1st resignation ultimatum for an IRA move on arms, although he used the stronger term "actual decommissioning".
Ulster Unionist and DUP politicians have stressed that the only means of avoiding a possible breakdown of the agreement is by an IRA move on weapons. The IRA has indicated it will honour its May 2000 pledge to put arms verifiably beyond use if, chiefly, the policing and demilitarisation issues are resolved to its satisfaction.
The RUC Chief Constable, Sir Ronnie Flanagan, told the BBC last night he had no information to indicate that an IRA move on weapons was imminent.
Mr Trimble is due to meet the British Prime Minister in London today. Mr Blair and the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, will meet in Gothenburg, Sweden, towards the end of the week.
