The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister will today take the initiative in the North's political crisis, organising an urgent series of talks to run through to Mr David Trimble's resignation on Sunday.
Mr Ahern and Mr Blair will arrive at Hillsborough Castle outside Belfast at lunchtime today determined to ensure Mr Trimble's resignation as First Minister does not lead to a pause in the search for agreement. They are expected to propose that a new round of talks begins as early as tomorrow, and they may return to chair talks next week.
While the Taoiseach and Prime Minister will meet all the pro-agreement parties today, the key meeting is expected to be that with the Sinn Fein leadership. Sources said the leaders will be seeking clarity from Sinn Fein "on whether they are prepared to do business".
The urgency of Mr Blair and Mr Ahern is despite the view of some sources that progress is unlikely before the unionist marching season climaxes on July 12th. The Belfast Agreement allows for a six-week "limbo" period after the First Minister's resignation in which a deal could be struck to allow his reinstatement by the Assembly. Sources close to the talks say the final part of this six-week period - early August - provides the best prospect for a deal.
However, the Taoiseach and Prime Minister are understood to feel strongly that the best prospect for a deal involves immediate talks. "The Drumcree business could go on for weeks," said one Dublin source. Sinn Fein has reacted angrily in recent days to pressure put on them by both governments to make concessions.
The IRA said earlier this week that it would not move on decommissioning before Mr Trimble's resignation. But it is under pressure to move towards putting weapons beyond use immediately after what is now seen as the First Minister's inevitable resignation.
The Taoiseach told the Dail last week that a timetable for putting weapons beyond use was not enough. The governments have sought a commitment from republicans that they will move towards agreeing the "modalities" of decommissioning - the precise means by which they would put weapons beyond use - as well as a timetable. They would also like to see agreement to another "confidence-building measure" - preferably an act of actual decommissioning.
In his article in today's Irish Times, the Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, says Mr Trimble's resignation threat will not help bring about decommissioning. Yet he believes the issue of weapons will be resolved.
He repeats the IRA position that to do this would require the creation of a "context" in which the IRA would put arms beyond use. This context involves the reduction of the British military presence on the ground, further concessions on police reform and some guarantee that the new political institutions will not be disrupted or suspended in future political crises.
Mr Adams says Mr Trimble's resignation threat will not work, nor will his assertion that the IRA acts only under pressure. This statement "is an obvious invitation for that organisation to prove otherwise", he says.