CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: DUBLIN CENTRAL:IN THE 2007 general election, then taoiseach Bertie Ahern was elected on the first count with 12,734 votes, or almost 40 per cent of all votes cast in the constituency.
So unassailable and powerful was Ahern that his preferred running mate Cyprian Brady was elected on his coat-tails – Brady’s 939 first preferences were by far the lowest of any TD elected in the country and left him in ninth place of 13 following the first count.
In a week’s time the general election will prove how quickly such mighty empires – and Ahern’s Drumcondra constituency machine was the biggest of them all – can crumble when the political atmosphere changes.
Fianna Fáil is in deep trouble in this constituency as it is in many others in the capital. If the party has a bad day, it could have only three TDs in Dublin. On a good day, it might win seven or eight. But the chances are that, even then, Dublin Central might not be one of them.
The party’s strategy of running two candidates is questionable, especially as Brady and Councillor Mary Fitzpatrick do not get along at all.
The complexion of this constituency was further altered by the death of Independent deputy Tony Gregory. His director of elections for many years, Maureen O’Sullivan, won the subsequent byelection handsomely and is standing again as the “Gregory candidate”. In the June 2009 byelection, O’Sullivan took 7,639 votes, almost 27 per cent of the total.
Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe won more than 22 per cent of the vote to come in at 6,439. Fianna Fáil – in the shape of Bertie Ahern’s brother Maurice – ended up a distant fifth with only 12 per cent or 3,483.
That won’t be enough to get a Fianna Fáil TD in, even with four seats and a quota of 20 per cent.
Dublin Central is a predominantly working-class constituency, with some of its Dublin 1 heartland among the poorest communities in Ireland.
However, there are substantial middle-class pockets such as Ahern’s bailiwick of Drumcondra and the area towards the Phoenix Park including Phibsboro, Glasnevin and Cabra.
The two candidates who look certain to make it into the new Dáil are Labour’s Joe Costello and Fine Gael’s Donohoe. The Fine Gael candidate brought the party from a low base in 2002 to within touching distance of a seat nine years later. He has developed his profile in areas where he was not so well known, including the Docklands and East Wall.
O’Sullivan, self-effacing and well liked, may struggle but the Gregory name – which still has purchase – and her reputation for integrity and hard work should be enough.
The battle will be for the last seat. It’s between Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald and Labour’s Áine Clancy. How tightly will Brady and Fitzgerald transfer to each other, given the tensions between them?
Has McDonald overcome her “blow-in” status; can she attract more transfers than the trickle she received in 2007? She will be affected more than most by her former colleague Christy Burke, running as an Independent. He will take Sinn Féin votes in the inner city, not all of which will come back. Cieran Perry in Cabra will also affect her share of the vote, but is expected to transfer heavily.
And then there is Áine Clancy. She is Drumcondra born, but representing Cabra-Glasnevin. If Labour is to break through, it should be gunning for two seats here. She has been impressive but was a late entrant, which may count against her.
