THE Fianna Fail leader, Mr Bertie Ahern, will attempt to secure a commitment of support for five years from Independent TDs in the forthcoming negotiations to form a minority coalition government. He will also set a premium on stability when consultations with the Progressive Democrats begin on a programme for government later this week.
As the results were coming in from the last counts in the general election yesterday, Fianna Fail strategists were quite confident that a stable government could be put together to last a full term. Fianna Fail, with 77 seats, and the PDs, with four, have 81 seats between them. Excluding the position of Ceann Comhairle, this leaves them only two short of the 83 seats required to secure a majority in the Dail.
The task of government formation will be helped, however, by the fact that most of the seven Independent TDs elected, the highest number for many years, come from the Fianna Fail extended family. There are also two Green Party TDs, Mr Trevor Sargent and Mr John Gormley, and a TD representing Sinn Fein, Mr Caoimhghin O Caolain.
Mr Jackie Healy Rae, the new Independent TD for South Kerry, has served as Fianna Fail's director of elections in the constituency for many years. A former chairman of Kerry County Council, he only left Fianna Fail before the election because he failed to secure a party nomination.
Ms Mildred Fox, the Wicklow TD, is the daughter of the late Johnny Fox. She had been a member of, Fianna Fail before falling out with the party and running successfully as an Independent in 1992.
Mr Tony Gregory, Independent TD for Dublin Central for 15 years, could best be defined as a republican socialist. He chose to support a Fianna Fail minority government in 1982 when he negotiated the Gregory Deal, valued at £80 million at the time.
Mr Harry Blaney, who has won back his late brother's seat in Donegal North, East, is Independent Fianna Fail. He wants a British declaration of intent to withdraw from Northern Ireland.
Mr O Caolain, the first Sinn Fein TD to enter the Dail and take his seat, could reasonably be presumed to have more in common with Fianna Fail's policy on the North than Fine Gael's. His leader, Mr Gerry Adams, indicated during the election campaign that he favoured a Fianna Fail led government.
Mr Tom Gildea, the TV deflector TD, in Donegal South West, won a Fianna Fail scat in that constituency. Little is known by Fianna Fail, however, about his political allegiance. This would indicate that he is not Fianna Fail.
The remaining two Independents, Mr Michael Lowry, the former Fine Gael minister, and Mr Joe Higgins, of the Socialist Party, hold no interest for Fianna Fail as the party considers its options on government formation.
Fianna Fail strategists assume, quite reasonably, that the Fianna Fail/PD alliance will have no difficulty in securing the votes to, elect Mr Ahern as Taoiseach when the Dail meets on June 26th. They are more concerned to negotiate a permanent arrangement with two of the seven Independents to provide ongoing support for their minority government.
In their initial review of the outcome, Fianna Fail's first instinct will be to make every effort to bring Mr Healy Rae back into the Fianna Fail fold as quickly as possible.
The indications were that Fianna Fail would also consult Ms Fox and Mr Gregory in the days ahead.
Mr Ahern made it absolutely clear during the election campaign that he would not be consulting, or seeking the support of, any Sinn Fein TD. This would send the wrong signals to the unionists, whom Mr Ahern hopes to engage in the immediate aftermath of an IRA ceasefire. It could also cause trouble with his new coalition partners. It would he hard to imagine a government supported by Mr Des O'Malley from within and Mr O Caolain from without.
Mr Ahern will discuss his options with his front bench colleagues when they meet tomorrow. He will also take soundings on the nature of the coalition arrangement he should negotiate with the much depleted PDs.
In the immediate aftermath of the counts yesterday, two things were clear. The Fianna Fail leader will honour his pre election agreement with the PDs to form a coalition government and notwithstanding their devastation, the PDs will enter that government. Ms Mary Harney could still be Tanaiste, with a second PD deputy occupying Mr Pat Rabbitte's half scat in Cabinet.
This new minority coalition government will operate in an entirely different Dail. The Rain bow, for one thing, will separate into three distinct parties, pursuing different policies, from the autumn. The Independents, for another thing, are such a motley bunch that it will be difficult for the opposition parties to find a single issue to attract them all to oppose the government.
The outcome of the election could well produce a government more stable than seems likely at first g lance.
