THE UVF "action" at Dublin Airport was reasonably predictable. There have been persistent warnings recently about the instability of the ceasefire from Mr David Ervine, spokesman for the UVF's political wing, the Progressive Unionist Party (PUP).
What is more problematic is whether the bomb alert foreshadows violence to come from the UVF. It also raises questions about the future of the loyalist paramilitary alliance, which acts under the aegis of the Combined Loyalist Military Command (CLMC).
The UVF has already told The Irish Times that it is prepared to end its ceasefire. This unilateral threat has annoyed the UDA, which comes under the CLMC umbrella. While the UVF in Mid Ulster was responsible for the Dublin Airport alert, LVF sources stress that dissatisfaction with current political developments, and particularly with "constitutional nationalism", is widespread throughout the organisation.
UVF sources have described the airport alert as "a shot across the bows" of the "pan nationalist front" a warning chat if the political agenda continues to favour Sinn Fein and the IRA, as the UVF perceives, further action could be expected.
Loyalists complain that Sinn Fein is still being feted despite the collapse of the IRA ceasefire. Its logic is that similarly the UVF should have nothing to lose by reactivating its campaign of violence.
The UDA and its political wing, the Ulster Democratic Party (UDP), have responded that this is flawed logic which plays into the hands of Sinn Fein and the IRA.
"It is particularly damaging at a time when we are coming up to the elections", said a senior UDP source. "If the IRA is looking for an excuse to relaunch its campaign in Northern Ireland, then the UVF should not be supplying that excuse by itself returning to violence.
The UDP also believes that the UVF complaints about the "pan nationalist consensus" are contrived.
"What else would nationalists have but nationalist views? What matters is how each side puts its case in all party talks. Anyway, I think this is just a smokescreen for the UVF's own internal problems," the source argued.
The UDA is also irked that it was not consulted about the UVF action.
The UDA blames a leading loyalist paramilitary figure in mid Ulster for precipitating the current internal rumblings within the UVF. UDA sources believe he was behind the formation of a splinter loyalist group two months ago.
The sources said that the UVF leadership, which is essentially Shankill based, should have moved against the mid Ulster loyalist. They added that the lack of action contrasted with a similar breaking of ranks within the UDA at the start of the ceasefire.
The then south Belfast UDA commander after threatening to continue the violence in defiance of the UDA leadership was instructed that he would be killed if he did so. He quickly obeyed that command and went into "internal exile" within Northern Ireland.
UDA sources claim that had the UVF acted with similar promptness and authority, the current difficulties would have been avoided.
With a discordant election campaign getting into gear, with a large question mark over whether there will be meaningful all party talks on June 10th, and with the possibility of further IRA bombs, there should be no underestimating the danger of this latest threat to the political process.
