How did it happen? This is the question on many Fianna Fail lips since Mary McAleese won the nomination for the presidency on Wednesday. Why so many should be so stunned is surprising in that anyone in the vicinity of the FF hierarchy over the past months knew that the ABBA movement (any body but Albert) really did exist.
Originally it was to be David Andrews, and everyone was happy. The election result put paid to that. Then John Hume would be an agreed candidate - no Albert, no campaign expense. He eventually turned them down. Ray MacSharry was always in the background and he was wooed again. No go. Time had run out. Andrews was in Calcutta. Was the presidency worth the Government? The answer was no. When Adi Roche emerged, FF saw defeat staring them in the face.
Michael O'Kennedy was not viewed as a winner in either party or country. McAleese got it not because she's a woman but because she was there at the right time and presented as a viable alternative to Albert. There were grave worries about the former Taoiseach because beef, passports, libels and old-style FF politics would be dragged out during the campaign and damage a party trying to put all that behind it; because he mightn't win and the Aras would be lost to its natural occupants for another seven years; because the PDs would never support him; and because if he did win there was a belief that he would be too interventionist for any government's liking. Also, he had enemies within the party, people he had offended on his way up, as all politicians have to do . . . and there was an annoyance that he had the arrogance to see off Hume.
The final factor was McAleese's brilliant speech and masterful delivery to the electorate on Wednesday. The 37 new members of the parliamentary party were present and both they and others were swayed at the last minute. "Who are you backing in the Oaks?" was the question echoing around Leinster House this week.