The Presidential election has developed into a two-horse race. But while either the Coalition ail and the PDs or Fine Gael will get a big boost from a victory on October 30th, both Government and Opposition view the outcome of the two pending by-elections as of even greater importance. If the Government wins both, it will be bouyant; if it loses both, it will be despondent and worried; if it wins one and loses one, it will be satisfied. Labour, which has high hopes for Sean Ryan in Dublin North, is keen to have both by-elections before the December 3rd budget, when the Minister for Finance, Charlie McCreevy, is expected to distribute some goodies.
But while it is the party's prerogative to move the writ for Limerick East, the Government can defeat it in the Dail vote. No decisions have been taken by the coalition parties on dates or candidates. They are in no hurry. If the by-elections are not held at the end of November, they are unlikely until the referendum on the Amsterdam Treaty in the spring. At this stage, one of the candidates being considered for Dublin North is the Taoiseach's niece, Amy Ahern. She is from Malahide and failed to get a nomination in Dublin North Central for the general election. Ray Burke is on holiday in Austria but party sources say his daughter Yvonne will not be a runner.
In Limerick East, Mary Jackman is the likely runner for FG and Jan O'Sullivan for Labour. The PDs, who once held two seats here, will decide between Counsellors Tim O'Malley, cousin of Des, and Dick Sadlier. FF has yet to reveal a candidate but is confident of taking the Jim Kemmy seat with the help of PD transfers.