Alliance hopes it can play a pivotal role

The Alliance leader, Lord Alderdice, who was elected on the first count in East Belfast, expressed confidence last night that…

The Alliance leader, Lord Alderdice, who was elected on the first count in East Belfast, expressed confidence last night that his party would be pivotal in ensuring that the Assembly would succeed.

Lord Alderdice predicted that Alliance would win seven seats. However, late last night observers believed a more likely result would be five or six seats for the party. Lord Alderdice said he believed that his party would hold the balance of power in the Assembly. He conceded that the anti-agreement unionist candidates had performed well, but nonetheless they had been significantly outvoted by the pro-agreement group. "This means that the people of Northern Ireland want the agreement and the Assembly to work," he said.

"Certainly there will be people in the Assembly who want to wreck it, but we in Alliance, co-operating with the UUP, the SDLP, and other pro-agreement parties, will make sure the agreement sticks, because that is what the people want," he added.

Lord Alderdice said he would have wished for more seats in the Assembly, but predicted that his party's real period of opportunity would come in the next Assembly election when its more centrist politics would gain wider favour.

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He expected that Alliance would describe itself in the Assembly as centrist or non-aligned, rather than unionist or nationalist.

He believed pro-agreement unionists under Mr Trimble would have sufficient seats to ensure they could not be usurped by anti-agreement unionists.

"I would see David Trimble as having 50 per cent of the unionist seats, or maybe slightly less," said Lord Alderdice.

Alliance's share of the first-preference vote in Northern Ireland at 6.5 per cent was 1.5 per cent down on last year's Westminster election. A more valid comparison, with the 1996 Forum election, shows that the party got almost exactly the same share as two years ago.

Alliance's deputy leader, Mr Seamus Close, took advantage of the absence from the ballot paper of the Ulster Unionist MP, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, and unionist divisions, to head the poll and get elected on the first count in Lagan Valley.

This was something of a surprise, since he failed to win a seat in the 1996 Forum election, only getting in through the "`top-up" system.

Like Mr Close, the hard-working former chief whip, Mr Sean Neeson, is something of a local personality and was always expected to get a seat in East Antrim.

However, he did better than expected, increasing his first-preference vote from 12 to 20 per cent compared to 1996, and being elected on the first count after Mr Roy Beggs jnr.

The Alliance party chairman, Ms Eileen Bell, is almost certain to get a seat in North Down. Here the party tried to split its 14.4 per cent of the vote to give its second candidate, Mr Gavin Walker, the chance of a seat. However, as counting closed last night it looked as though he would not make it. It is probable that the last two seats will be filled without anyone reaching the quota.

Another Alliance seat will come from Strangford, where Mr Kieran McCarthy and Mr Peter Osborne split their 12.5 per cent of the vote almost down the middle. It is expected that Mr McCarthy, a shopkeeper from Kircubbin on the Ards Peninsula who represented the constituency in the Forum, will be returned.

In South Belfast, a Belfast city councillor, Mr Steve McBride, came third with just over 4,000 first preferences. However, in a close fight for the last two seats, he was pipped by Ms Monica McWilliams of the Women's Coalition and Ms Carmel Hanna of the SDLP.

The party as a chance of a seat in South Antrim, where the party secretary, Mr David Ford, will probably be fighting for the last seat with the SDLP.

In East Antrim, Mr Stewart Dickson has another outside chance of a second seat.

In West Belfast the Alliance candidate, Mr Dan McGuinness, polled only 129 votes.