With the North's Assembly elections only three weeks away, the Alliance leader, Lord Alderdice, is a confident man. He won't be drawn on the number of seats or share of the vote he thinks Alliance will secure; but he believes the Assembly and the prospect of lasting peace offer his party tremendous opportunities.
Alliance has operated in hostile conditions since its formation in 1970. The Troubles favoured parties on the extremes. It was difficult to convince people of the need for tolerance and moderation with bombs exploding and people being killed.
The situation on the streets meant the apostles of confrontation prospered. Alliance members were often regarded as out-of-touch do-gooders at best, or cowardly fence-sitters at worst. But the party believes new, post-Agreement Northern Ireland offers the ideal environment for its growth.
"I don't expect a sudden explosion in our electoral fortunes," Lord Alderdice said. "But we will grow in a slower, steadier way. The important thing is that the whole atmosphere is changing. This settlement creates the possibility of a shared politics and community.
"The shape of the settlement is perhaps closer to our party than any other. And when social and economic issues start coming to the fore, that will be a huge advantage to us. We already have a wealth of policies on those matters."
That's no idle boast. The party's manifesto, It's Time for Tomorrow Together, devotes considerable space to education, health and environmental matters. But while the focus may in future shift to these issues, this election will be fought mainly on the hoary old constitutional issues.
The thrust of Alliance's campaign is that the people have spoken, and voters must now elect politicians who will contribute positively to the Assembly. It's a message in tune with the mood in wider society, but the new situation also presents potential difficulties for Alliance. The political ground has changed so much in recent years that all the North's parties, except the DUP and UK Unionists, could sign up to many of Alliance's policies.
There is a danger that as the larger parties encroach on the middle ground, Alliance could find itself pushed aside. In some ways it's easier now to be unashamedly unionist or nationalist. In working-class Protestant areas, Alliance has undoubtedly lost some support to the fringe loyalists from voters who think it's too middle-class. However, the party believes it is seeing off the challenge from its main competitor for the middle ground, the Women's Coalition.
Alliance is hoping for between seven and 10 seats: one each in South Belfast, Lagan Valley, South Antrim and Strangford, and possibly two each in East Belfast, North Down and East Antrim. The party expects to receive the 7 per cent of the vote it has averaged in recent elections. But it is more interested in having candidates elected than in its percentage share, as its Assembly strength will determine whether it receives a ministerial position.
Alliance sources believe nine seats will secure an executive position. There is a 50-50 chance with a victory of eight seats, and the party might just scrape a post on seven seats if the DUP, as expected, turns down its ministerial position. It is understood that Lord Alderdice himself, whose brother, David, was elected Lord Mayor of Belfast on Monday night, would fill the post.
The system of voting, proportional representation based on the single-transferable vote, benefits Alliance as it receives more transfers than perhaps any other. But some observers believe the rules governing the Assembly could be disastrous for the party, effectively sidelining it.
All parties entering the Assembly will have to declare themselves "nationalist, unionist or other". Alliance will be opting for "other", calling itself either the centre or non-aligned group. Key decisions must have a majority of both the nationalist and unionist groups, or else 40 per cent of each group and a 60 per cent overall majority.
It has been argued that the first scenario in particular renders Alliance seats worthless. Lord Alderdice disagrees, and argues that in the second scenario his party could hold the balance of power and exercise enormous influence. Party insiders talk of becoming the Northern power-broking equivalent of the Progressive Democrats or Labour Party.
It has been suggested that Alliance should declare itself unionist when entering the Assembly, as this would ensure a clear pro-Agreement majority in the unionist group and stop the DUP and UK Unionists wrecking the Assembly. But Alliance is clearly uncomfortable with the idea, saying the party must maintain its independence and not collude in sectarianism.
When pushed as to whether he is putting party political pieties before the greater good, Lord Alderdice said he would adopt a pragmatic approach if the Assembly was under threat. He appeared to leave the door open for Alliance to join the unionist group on occasions when anti-Agreement unionists look as if they might outvote the pro-Agreement group, and indeed, joining the nationalist group if Sinn Fein wields a majority there and is about to "wreck" the Assembly.
The party sees its main role as saving the Assembly. "We will be holding things together, bringing a sense of balance and reality as we did in the talks," Lord Alderdice said. "If the unionists are out of order, we will say so. If nationalists are being unreasonable, we will tell them."