Forty seven per cent of Irish adults will never use the Internet, a survey published today suggests.
However, the number of Irish people online will rise steadily over the next few years while a surprisingly large number have vowed to ignore the Internet, according to the survey by technology consultants Amárach.
The surveyforecasts that by 2003, 43 per cent or 1.2 millionIrish adults will be accessing the Internet on a regular basis, over the last two years Internet usage has doubled. Almost a third of Irish adults, equivalent to about 895,000 people, currently use the Internet.
However, the high levels of growth observed over the last two years are unlikely to be replicated.
According to Ms Bettina MacCarvill, senior consultant at Amárach, Internet use at work has almost reached saturation levels.
"In addition, many people continue to see the Internet as having no relevance to them and they are simply not interested in using it. Our research found that an estimated 47 per cent of Ireland's adult population say they will never go online."
"The Internet is failing to take-off among the over 50s and among a majority of those in C2DE (lower income) households. The digital divide is not receding," she added.
Amárach estimates that the value of the Ireland's consumer Commerce market will be close to £100 million (euro 127 million) this year, rising to £260 million (euro 330 million) in 2003.
This represents a downward revision of forecasts released last year.
"The downgrading of forecasts is not due to any underlying economic slowdown. It is a result of lack of alternative payment systems, continued lack of confidence in the security of buying online and a lack of relevant online propositions that target the wider consumer market", said Mr Gerard O'Neill, managing director of Amárach Consulting.
"Internet use is concentrated among young people, who for the most part don't own credit cards and therefore cannot buy at the vast majority of Websites." He said.
"Overall the future outlook for Ireland's online consumer market is good, but not spectacular ", he concluded.
The report released today by Amárach Consulting entitled "Eir-Commerce 2001" presents an overview of the current state of Ireland's consumer online market.