US economic and political clout will decline over the next two decades, according to a new report from the US's leading intelligence agency.
The National Intelligence Council report,
Global Trends 2025,also said the financial crisis on Wall Street is just the first phase of a global economic reordering, and the world will be more dangerous, with food and water scarce and advanced weapons plentiful.
The US dollar's role as the world's major currency would weaken to become a "first among equals," the report said.
The outlook is intended to inform US president-elect Barack Obama of factors that will influence global events. It is based on a year-long global survey of experts and trends by US intelligence analysts.
"The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," said the report, which was more pessimistic about US influence and the potential for conflict than the last outlook for 2020.
Russia's potential was less certain, depending on its energy wealth and internal investment, while Iran, Turkey and Indonesia were also seen gaining power.
A world with multiple power centres has been less stable than one with a single or two rival superpowers, and there was a growing potential for conflict, the report said.
Global warming will be felt, and water, food and energy constraints may fuel conflict over resources.
"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries," the report said.
"Types of conflict we have not seen for a while - such as over resources - could reemerge," it forecast.
Global wealth was seen shifting from the developed West to the energy-rich Gulf States and Russia, and to Asia, the rising centre of manufacturing and some service industries.
Global rich-poor disparities would grow, leaving Africa vulnerable to increased instability.
A reordering of the world financial system was happening faster than the report's authors envisioned, Thomas Fingar, chairman of the intelligence council, said. Last weekend's Group of 20 summit of advanced and major developing countries in Washington showed work had begun, Mr Fingar added.
A shift away from an oil-based energy system will be under way or complete by 2025. Better renewable technologies such as solar and wind power offer the best opportunity for a quick and low-cost transition, the report said.
There was a greater, but still small, risk of nuclear attack, based on spreading technologies and the weakening of international nonproliferation systems.
Mr Fingar said harmful outcomes were not inevitable. "It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, [or] in some cases [the] working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems," Mr Fingar told reporters. "We could have a better world in 2025."
China and India, following a "state capitalism" economic model, were likely to join the United States atop a multipolar world and compete for influence, the report said.
If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, Mr Fingar said, that could set off an arms race in the Middle East, which is considered in the report as an "arc of instability".
The risk that militant groups would use biological weapons was greater than the risk of nuclear terrorism, the report said.
The appeal of terrorism could decline over the next two decades, particularly if Middle Eastern countries provide productive education and opportunities for their young people, the report predicted. But with a growing population, the pool of potential terrorism recruits is likely to be larger, and access to dangerous weapons will rise.
Reuters