A year after 10 new countries joined the EU, few of the predictions of doom have come true,writes Denis Staunton in Brussels.
For the European Commission, tomorrow's first anniversary of the EU's biggest expansion is a cause for celebration and an opportunity to remind Euro-pessimists that few of their doom-laden predictions have come true.
There has been no surge of economic migrants from east to west, no bankrupting of EU coffers through excessive subsidies and no seizing up of the institutional workings of the union.
The Commission president, José Manuel Barroso, declared yesterday that last year's enlargement had already helped to consolidate political and economic stability, democracy and human rights in Europe.
"The distinction between new and old member states no longer makes sense. For me, this enlargement feels like a real reunion of members of the same family who had been broken up against their will and who, after many years of separation, are getting together again to live and work side-by-side and put their divisions behind them. It is a reunification not only of nations and peoples, but also of cultures and ways of looking at the world," he said.
There is no doubt that many of the fears that accompanied the expansion from 15 to 25 member states have proved unfounded but the marriage between east and west remains uneasy, and mutual suspicion survives, especially between the EU's founding countries and its newest members.
Enlargement is working remarkably well in practical terms, with most meetings of ministers and ambassadors running smoothly despite the addition of 10 new voices around the table. Diplomats say national representatives no longer feel obliged to intervene at every meeting and that interventions, when they happen, tend to be more concise and focused than before.
The greatest difficulty surrounds translation, with the number of working languages increasing from 11 to 20. Translation problems cause delays in legislation and have slowed the workings of many institutions, from the European Parliament to the European Court of Justice.
The problem is exacerbated by a shortage of interpreters for some lesser-used languages, a difficulty that could become a little worse if the Government succeeds in making Irish an official and working language of the EU.
Within the new member states, EU membership is more popular today than it was a year ago. John Palmer, policy director of the European Policy Centre - a Brussels think tank - attributes this change to economic success.
"In part, this is the impact of EU policies but more generally it is because membership has accelerated investment inflows that had already started before they joined," he says.
The 10 new member states saw their economies grow by 5 per cent last year, more than twice the EU average - with Latvia growing by an astounding 8.5 per cent. All the new member states are net beneficiaries of the EU budget and Eurostat, the EU's statistical office, estimates farm incomes in the 10 new states rose by 50 per cent last year.
For the 15 original member states, enlargement has brought trade benefits, and eastern Europe has become a target for investment by many western European companies. Popular support in the west remains grudging, however, with 75 per cent of Germans saying they are worried about the consequences of enlargement. Such fears, which are most acute in Germany and France, centre on job insecurity and the threat of "delocalisation" - companies moving from west to east because of low wages and low taxes. A proposal to liberalise the EU market in services raises the spectre of "social dumping" - a reduction in wages and social standards in wealthier countries.
Barroso's decision to put economic reform at the heart of his commission's programme for the next five years is fuelling the anxiety in France and Germany that an alliance of free-marketeers, including Britain and Ireland as well as the 10 new member states - has hijacked the EU's political agenda.
Most of the new member states joined Britain in blocking the choice of Belgium's prime minister, Guy Verhofstadt, as commission president - opening the way for Barroso, an economic liberal.
Fears about the political impact of enlargement have helped the No campaign take the lead in opinion polls in advance of next month's referendum in France on the EU constitution. Palmer warns that relations between old and new member states could become worse if France rejects the constitution.
"If the constitution is derailed, it will have very serious knock-on effects on a whole lot of policy areas," he says.
The new member states have traditionally been more pro-American than the original 15, partly on account of the communist past shared by the central and eastern Europeans. Most supported the Iraq war and some sent soldiers to join the US-led forces there although some, including Poland, are now withdrawing their troops.
Palmer believes attitudes towards the US in the new member states are changing and that the idea of a grand pro-American alliance is British wishful thinking. "[ There is] a shift in stance to put clear blue water between themselves and the Bush administration," he says.
At last year's ceremony in Áras an Uachtaráin, when the 25 flags of the EU were raised in slow succession, the mood was one of hope and of excitement at the prospect of the continent's reunification after the horrors and divisions of the 20th century. Barroso evoked that spirit yesterday, calling for solidarity and a more open dialogue but acknowledging that much remains to be done to overcome enduring suspicions on both sides.
"In each of the 25 countries, work has begun on explaining and educating the public. This task is being pursued. It is by establishing a culture of dialogue and openness that we can improve ourselves. But it is also very true that we are still getting to know each other, getting to grips with the new realities of our community," added Barroso. "And that will take time. We must be patient and give ourselves the time to learn about and get to know each other," he said.