WHILE the RUC Chief Constable, Sir Hugh Annesley, yesterday admitted he could make no firm assessment of IRA intentions, he had no hesitation in predicting, immediate loyalist retaliation, North and South, if there are any IRA attacks in Northern Ireland.
One indisputable trend revealed in his annual report for 1995, published yesterday, is the dramatic increase in sexual offences up 26 percent on 1994.
Rapes increased by 36 per cent to 229 indecent assaults on males increased by 76 per cent to 240 indecent assaults on females increased by 23 per cent to 692, and unlawful carnal knowledge of under age girls increased by 36 per cent to 260.
On the security front, the chief constable said the current situation was "worrying and unset tied". Further bombings in Britain or within the North were possible. There could be a short sharp campaign of violence across the North and affecting the Republic and Britain.
If this happened, however, his view was that it would be relatively shortlived and that the determination and the will for peace "from so many people and so many countries" would eventually compel the IRA to accept the will of the people.
He said he believed it would not take much at this point to push the loyalist paramilitaries over the edge. "There is little doubt that if there were a republican bomb within Northern Ireland the loyalists would immediately retaliate without warning and would look to hit targets within the province and within the Republic of Ireland," he said.
It was extremely difficult at the moment to read the minds of the IRA, he commented. A ceasefire could be imminent, or might not come for months or years. He thought they were unsettled and unsure themselves - there was probably a very serious debate continuing within republican ranks "as to whether it should be war or politics".
He expressed the belief that at the top of the republican movement, the IRA and Sinn Fein were "inextricably linked", adding: "I believe Messrs Adams and McGuinness are very, very influential people and I think they have a major say in the conduct overall of the republican thrust.
"There are people in Sinn Fein who devote themselves purely politics. But the control of movement at the top is linked. There are members Provisional Sinn Fein who are the army council, and there members of the army council are on the political talks level Sinn Fein."
He did not think that McGuinness and Mr Adams alone could bring about a ceasefire, nor did he think the IRA was going to split. "I think it is a cohesive movement," he said. "I think there are differences of opinion. I have no doubt that there are significant sections of the Provisional Army Council who want peace."
On the basis of available intelligence, he did not know what they were going to do. He asserted, however, that he had had "a specific reason", which he did not intend to reveal, for introducing additional anti terrorist measures throughout the North in the past few days.
He said his advice to the northern secretary concerning the option of internment would remain confidential. However, he criticised the frequent "knee jerk calls for internment", which came mostly from politicians who did not live in the North, and the basis for which did not hold water. Internment could be a short term palliative but a longer term disaster.
The 1995 report, which is Sir, Hugh Annesley's final report before he retires, records a substantial reduction in security related incidents during the year. There were nine deaths as a result of the security situation compared with 61 in 1994. This was the fewest recorded in any year in the past 26. Eight of those who died were civilians, and one was an RUC Constable, Arthur Seymour, who had been in a coma since receiving his injuries in 1973.
A total of 440 people were charged with terrorist related or serious public order offences, including 10 charges of murder or attempted murder, 31 charges of firearms offences and 18 of armed robbery.