Anti-pact side now sure they can put kibosh on Assembly's key decisions

For the anti-agreement unionists it was a David-and-Goliath battle, and David won

For the anti-agreement unionists it was a David-and-Goliath battle, and David won. "Powerful forces lined up against us," says a senior DUP figure. "But the combined strength of the two governments, Bill Clinton, business leaders and the establishment churches couldn't destroy us. It was a very bad election for David Trimble and a very good one for us."

But there isn't time to celebrate. The new Assembly meets on Wednesday, and its anti-agreement members are busy discussing tactics.

According to the agreement, key Assembly decisions require either parallel consent - a majority of both unionist and nationalist members - or a weighted majority, in which the support of 60 per cent of members taking part in a vote is required, with at least 40 per cent of both the unionists and nationalists present voting in favour.

The unionist camp in the Assembly is split almost down the middle. There are 28 unequivocal Nos, 20 DUP, five UK Unionists and three Independents. In theory Mr Trimble should be sure of 30 unionist votes, 28 Ulster Unionists and two Progressive Unionists.

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But three of those Ulster Unionists have already publicly declared themselves anti-agreement, Mr Roy Beggs jnr, Mr Peter Weir and Ms Pauline Armitage. The DUP claims there are another six UUP Assembly members who could, in certain circumstances, jump ship.

The first test could be on Wednesday when the First Minister and Deputy First Minister are due to be elected. The agreement lays down that they will be elected under the parallel consent rule, requiring the support of a majority of unionist members present and voting. The UK Unionist leader, Mr Robert McCartney, is urging UUP Assembly members not to support Mr Trimble blindly.

"I'm calling on them to ask him to state in black-and-white terms whether he will enter government with Sinn Fein without IRA decommissioning. He has made contradictory statements, and the UUP Assembly members should demand he clarify his position. If he says he won't sit with Sinn Fein in government until arms are handed in, the agreement is finished. If he says he will, then it wouldn't be disloyal for UUP members not to vote for him."

A DUP source suggests a more Machiavellian possibility. "Nobody has to vote against David Trimble or even abstain. All it takes is for two UUP members not to show up. They could have holidays booked or be attending Somme commemorations in France and there is stalemate. Three absent, and he is defeated."

All parties entering the Assembly must register as unionist, nationalist or other. Alliance is expected to register as "other" but will consider changing to either the unionist or nationalist blocs to bolster numbers if moderates are in trouble.

Mr McCartney says that, in those circumstances, legal action would be taken. "Not only would Alliance's credibility be destroyed in the eyes of the electorate, but it would be argued in court that a party suddenly claiming to be unionist, but which did not stand as a unionist party nor put forward a unionist manifesto, was acting fraudulently."

Leading UUP dissidents outside the Assembly believe Mr Trimble will survive Wednesday. "It will be the autumn when cross-Border bodies are being set up and the executive appointed that he will be tripped up," one says.

For the anti-agreement unionists to thwart Mr Trimble on any occasion, some of the 28 UUP members must rebel. Of the three known Nos, Mr Roy Beggs jnr is regarded as the most determined. His father, Mr Roy Beggs snr, is the anti-agreement MP for East Antrim.

Mr Beggs jnr said yesterday that while he is going in to work the Assembly positively, Sinn Fein must not be allowed into government without decommissioning, an end to punishment beatings and the dismantling of IRA structures.

Mr Peter Weir, a young barrister and close associate of the dissident MP, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, says he intends to vote for Mr Trimble as First Minister. But he remains anti-agreement and says he believes the UUP will not enter government with Sinn Fein without decommissioning.

"That's our party policy, and I've no reason to think it won't be upheld. I'm totally against allowing unreconstructed terrorists cabinet positions."

Ms Pauline Armitage is regarded as the softest No of the trio. She tends to avoid controversy but is an associate of the dissident UUP MP, Mr Willie Ross, which could possibly be influential. Dr Ian Adamson, elected in East Belfast, and the Rev Robert Coulter, a member for North Antrim, are also mentioned as potential rebels.

DR Adamson could not be contacted yesterday. Mr Coulter says he voted for the agreement and was not a dissident. However, he says he was against entering government with Sinn Fein without decommissioning. "I accept the pledges by Tony Blair and David Trimble that guns will be handed over. If that doesn't happen, I would oppose sitting in an executive with Sinn Fein."

The DUP deputy leader, Mr Peter Robinson, says such views are widespread within the UUP and make its leader's position untenable. "David Trimble is not stupid. He knows he has signed up to entering government with Sinn Fein while the IRA retains its arms. But during the election campaign he told his party otherwise. As the truth dawns, David Trimble will be in big trouble."

If anti-agreement unionists don't succeed in defeating Mr Trimble on Wednesday, they will continue the fight when the Assembly reconvenes in September. They will oppose any attempt to set up cross-Border bodies with executive powers and expect rebel UUP support.

The DUP appears ready to embarrass the UUP leader and Mr Blair over posts on the Executive. The DUP's 20 Assembly seats entitle it to two positions. The speculation was that the party would refuse the posts, but sources now say this is unlikely. "We will probably accept them. We won't actually sit in the cabinet if Sinn Fein is there. But the agreement doesn't require a cabinet minister to attend cabinet meetings. David Trimble could hardly expel the DUP from cabinet while allowing Sinn Fein to stay."

The anti-agreement unionists are clearly on a roll. "Trimble has presided over the worst election result for his party since partition," says Mr Robinson. "The UUP is deeply divided. Most of his parliamentary colleagues aren't on speaking terms with him." There have been highly-charged exchanges between some leading UUP politicians, Mr Robinson says, and a party can function only if "common courtesy exists among its members".