Demonstrations and violent exchanges reveal a country gripped by turmoil, writes MICHAEL JANSEN
MASS RALLIES erupted across Syria yesterday. In protest centres, regime opponents called for President Bashar al-Assad to stand down, while in Damascus and several other cities, demonstrators carried his portrait and shouted pro-regime slogans.
The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that security forces used nail bombs, stun grenades and tear gas to disperse opposition protesters in the Damascus suburb of Douma and that 250,000 had turned out in Idlib province in the north. Activists said the death toll was 22.
The rebel “Free Syrian Army” said it had halted operations against government targets since the arrival on Tuesday of Arab League monitors to oversee implementation of the league’s peace plan, which calls on all parties to end violence. On Wednesday, however, it was reported that four soldiers had been killed and 12 wounded in an ambush claimed by this group in Deraa province.
Russia, which has tried to defuse the situation, indicated its “satisfaction” over the beginning of the league mission while Syrian opposition activists expressed exasperation over the monitors’ failure to promptly halt the government’s crackdown.
League monitors are caught between a government determined to remain in power and opponents committed to its overthrow. But neither side can achieve its objective.
The regime retains the loyalty of the military and of substantial sections of the populace as well as the external support of Iran, Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa.
The opposition remains divided between exiles seeking the forcible removal of the regime and more moderate locals prepared to negotiate its departure. Protesters argue that they are peaceful but from the outset armed elements have been involved, including deserters belonging to the Free Syrian Army, which now controls districts of certain cities and towns. The opposition has the backing of western powers, Turkey, human rights organisations and the international media, denied entry by the government.
It is impossible to obtain a clear picture of the situation in the country. The government blames violence on “armed groups” and “terrorists” and plays down the extent of unrest.
The opposition exaggerates in order to capture the attention of the media, human rights bodies and powers that have long sought the demise of the Assad regime, particularly the United States and France but have not, so far, been prepared to intervene militarily.
Moreover, the league is split. Iraq, Lebanon, Algeria and Egypt fear chaos in the Levant if the Assad regime collapses while Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states back the opposition.
Therefore, the monitors are operating amid conflicting pressures from within the league and outside it.
Monitors come from league members with poor human rights records while the choice of Gen Mustafa Dabi as mission head has been criticised because he was Sudan’s chief of military intelligence during the repression of the early 1990s.
Meanwhile, the Syrian economy is on a downward slide due to financial sanctions imposed by the US and EU. According to an expert at Damascus university who blogs as EHSANI, the budget deficit could reach 18-20 per cent this year. Income from oil sales and the public sector has fallen. This could compel the government to borrow from companies that made huge profits during the period of economic liberalisation. State institutions have been ordered to cut expenditures by 25 per cent.
On the popular level, unemployment is 30 per cent. Imports have been reduced, cutting pressure on the Syrian pound, which has been stabilised. A shortage of heating oil and cooking gas is affecting most cities. Since mid-November Damascus has had daily power cuts of up to three hours. Strikes and boycotts declared by the opposition have affected provincial towns and cities but not Damascus and Aleppo, the business hub. However, due to a good rainy season, the harvest has been excellent and prices for basic foodstuffs remain moderate.
Aware that sanctions are unlikely to bring down the regime, the Obama administration is, reportedly, considering other options, including providing aid to the opposition and creating a buffer zone offering protection to civilians and the Free Syrian Army along the Turkish border.