The Palestine Authority faces its most serious challenge ever due to the victory of the Likud candidate in Israel's prime ministerial poll.
Ordinary Palestinians were dismayed and disappointed by Mr Yasser Arafat's message of congratulation to Mr Ariel Sharon, the prime minister-elect, and assurances that negotiations could be resumed in the near future in spite of his statements that the Oslo process is "dead" and talks cannot resume where they broke off at the end of January. Mr Sharon's policies leave Mr Arafat in is a very tricky position.
His personal approval rating has plunged to an all-time low, while his authority has lost control over portions of the West Bank and Gaza. His main challenge comes from the West Bank leadership of his own Fatah movement rather than the Islamist Hamas. The Palestinian rising has empowered the Fatah chiefs of Ramallah, Bethlehem and Nablus. Local Fatah activists have combined with a dozen other factions, including Islamists, to form a unified command for the four-month-old Intifada. This front is not only spearheading the campaign against Israel but also the fight against corruption in the authority.
Many of Mr Arafat's closest associates are on a list of officials condemned for corruption issued by the front. Last month the high profile figure who topped the list, the wealthy director of the Palestine Broadcasting Authority, Mr Hisham Makki, was assassinated as he left a seafront hotel in Gaza.
While the existence of the list gives a certain amount of impetus to the anti-corruption campaign, Dr Ghassan Khatib, a leading Palestinian analyst, doubts the drive will have much success. "There is talk of changes in the negotiating team and several ministries," Dr Khatib stated. "But these will be very limited." Mr Arafat "will not budge, corrupt people are the basis of his power."
Dr Mahdi Abdel Hadi, who heads a think-tank in Jerusalem, says that Mr Arafat will have to agree to some changes to "water down the anger in the society". But he "remains a master of tactics" and the "glue which keeps Fatah together. Without him we could have civil war". Since he knows everyone understands this, he simply "closes his eyes and does what he wants", stated Dr Abdel Hadi.
