New research by Barnardos examines what kind of a world our children are likely to face over the next 10-15 years, writes Carl O'BrienSocial Affairs Correspondent
JACINTA SHEERIN confesses to feeling a gnawing sense of unease as she looks into the future for her three children Cathal (11), Cian (six) and Katy (three).
During the heady days of the economic boom, it was so different: children were part of a pampered generation growing up in a prosperous country with more opportunities and choices than any generation before. But now she's not so sure.
"They've had everything up until now," says Sheerin, who lives in the middle-class neighbourhood of Castleknock on Dublin's northside. "But I fear what's ahead of them now. I never thought for a moment they'd be growing up in an era of spending cuts, larger class sizes, or emigration being a possibility once again. I thought we were beyond all that."
Her experiences mirror those of countless other families who rode the wave of prosperity, low taxes and comfortable wages over the past decade or so. She and her husband work, they have two cars, they take several holidays a year and they have never had to worry too much about paying bills. Their house is immaculately decorated and kept up-to-date. But as the economy crumbles and unemployment soars, she feels as if the world of opportunity facing her was built on sand.
"We never had it so good as a country, and chances are we won't have it as good again," she says. "Everything was focused on money and we've nothing to show for it. The education and health systems are way behind where they should be. You wonder about the quality of life in the future. I want my children to grow up in a place where we have a proper sense of community, where they have choices in life, where they're not just economic units."
Her gloomy outlook for the future chimes with many of the findings of Tomorrow's Child, new research commissioned by the children's charity Barnardos. It examines what kind of world children are likely to grow up in over the next 10-15 years based on current trends in population and social change.
Mostly, it looks through a glass darkly at a generation of children who are likely to have to work until they are 70, begin to consider taking pensions out in their late teens, study for longer, have less job security, change career many times and be under greater levels of Government surveillance.
They are likely to have a computer in their bedroom, eat more pre-prepared food, and engage in potentially dangerous activities such as taking soft drugs, smoking and drinking excessive amounts of alcohol.
There are positives, though. Most children are likely to experience good health, better access to education and increased expertise in new technology.
Despite suggestions this week by church figures that the traditional family is under threat, it forecasts - based on current trends - that children are much more likely to grow up in stable families with two parents.
Marriage, it notes, is more popular than ever and the majority of cohabiting couples with children go on to marry, a fact largely ignored in the heated debate about the status of the family this week.
Children will increasingly be born to parents in their 30s and are more likely to be an "only child", or have one or two siblings, but not more.
But what is most striking about the report is its stark conclusion that the social ravine separating the haves and the have-nots will remain as deep and perilous as ever. About one-fifth of children will continue to experience grinding poverty and risk falling through the cracks of society.
"All indications are that there will be two worlds of children," says Brian Harvey, an independent social researcher and author of the Barnardos report.
"It's striking how good many of the indicators are for the majority of children, but there is no sign of things improving for a large minority. I'd like to say there is, but there is no sign it's going to change."
The high rates of child poverty in Ireland are a reflection of a low-tax, low-spend, low-redistribution model of development pursued over the past decade, according to Harvey. And as long as this continues to be Ireland's model of development, he maintains, problems of child poverty and childhood adversity will persist. "These are political choices at the end of the day, not social trends," he says.
NUALA McGINNITY, a lone parent, lives with her 11-year-old son, Ryan, in a two-bedroom council house in Monaghan.
She ekes out a living on her part-time work - 19 hours a week as a community development worker - as well as the lone-parent allowance and a special welfare payment aimed at poorer working families.
"I know I'm probably in the poverty bracket," she says, "but we get by. I'm good at budgeting. It's difficult at times, especially Christmas or if there's a school tour, but that just means more sacrifices."
According to the Barnardos report, children born to lone-parent households, within large families of low income, or living in deprived areas, are at far higher risk of being affected by poverty throughout their lives. They are more likely to have limited educational and job opportunities. And when they are adults, they are at a higher risk of experiencing the same inter-generational poverty.
Yet, Nuala remains upbeat for her son's future.
"He talks about going to college with his friends, even though he's young," she says. "They have high expectations for themselves, which is great. He's mad into films and says he wants to become a director. I encourage him and say, why not?"
As he prepares to go into secondary school next year, she's bracing herself for the increased costs: school uniform, books, sports clothes will all put a heavier strain on her income.
"Maybe the difference between me and other parents is they're thinking about third-level and saving up for that. For me, I'm worrying about going into secondary and making sure he's able to do the things other children do," she says. "But the way I see it, it doesn't matter whether you're in a one-parent or two-parent family. Everyone faces the same issues, and school costs are a burden on most families."
For many experts, there are issues beyond income gaps that are likely to affect all children in the years ahead. Irene Gunning, chief executive of the Irish Preschool Play Association (IPPA), an early-childhood organisation, says a risk with smaller families is that parents are more likely to "bubble-wrap" their children to the point where it may impede their development. "With smaller families, friendship with other children is more important. There won't be the wider family or community support network we had. Of course we want to keep our children out of harm's way. But some of the most valuable learning is with other children," she says.
"They learn social skills, they learn about risk-taking, they learn to be creative. Parents will need to take time to do this - and the Government will need to provide more support for things like playgrounds."
The lack of State investment in children is a recurring theme among many experts concerned with ensuring the next generation is given every chance to fulfil its potential.
The Barnardos report, for example, notes that investment in early childhood education for preschool children has improved but lags far behind many other EU countries, with services that are underdeveloped, underfunded, expensive and largely private.
Yet, numerous studies show that a year's free universal preschool contributes hugely to intellectual and social development of young children. Cost-benefit analyses show that every €1 spent on early-childhood education yields a return of more than €7 later, in the form of better outcomes for children.
However, Brian Harney sees the actions of the Government in recent months as those of an administration that can no longer be trusted as a reliable partner in the struggle to make the country a better place for our children.
"Look at what they've done," he says. "They've closed down the Centre for Early Childhood Development and Education, they're effectively shutting down the Combat Poverty Agency, cutting budgets for vulnerable students. They're sending out a very powerful message that these areas are not priorities for them."
For campaigners such as Fergus Finlay, the Barnardos chief executive, now feels like a good time to take stock of where we are as a society.
While it's hugely encouraging to see the positive outlook facing many children, he says we cannot afford to abandon another generation of disadvantaged children.
"Given the current economic crisis, this is a critical time to look back at how we have responded to the needs of our most vulnerable children and young people and to look forward at what we need to do now and into the future to create a more equal Ireland for all our children," Finlay says.
"Many of tomorrow's children have ample opportunities and increased standards of living, but as a society we must be judged by how we treat those children left behind by the wealth of the Celtic Tiger."