THE VATICAN: Argentinian Jesuit José Mario Bergoglio was the only real rival to German Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, subsequently Pope Benedict XVI, at last April's conclave, according to the diary of an anonymous cardinal elector.
Extracts of the diary, due to be published in full in the Italian current affairs review Limes, were carried in several dailies yesterday.
Although Limes gives no indication of the identity of the diarist, the reconstruction of the papal election, by and large, coincides with informed media speculation at the time, including reports in The Irish Times.
In essence, the diary claims Cardinal Ratzinger was always the frontrunner in the election and that the only serious opposition to him evaporated when his closest electoral rival, Cardinal Bergoglio of Buenos Aires, had a "humility crisis", feeling that he was not worthy to be called to sit on the Seat of Peter.
The diary begins on Sunday, April 17th, with the cardinal moving into his room at the Domus Santa Marta, the Vatican residence in which all the electors stayed.
The diarist claims that at the first vote on the afternoon of Monday, April 18th, Cardinal Ratzinger topped the poll with 47 votes, with Cardinal Bergoglio next on 10, Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini third on nine, followed by Cardinal Camillo Ruini with six, Cardinal Angelo Sodano with four, Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga with three and Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi on two.
After that vote, the conclave was adjourned and the cardinals returned to the Domus Santa Marta, where the diarist claims that the evening was marked by a series of meetings between cardinals, "two or three at a time after supper in their rooms".
At this point those who supported the cardinal emeritus of Milan, Cardinal Martini, redirected their votes in favour of Cardinal Bergoglio, who picked up 35 votes on the first of the two Tuesday morning votes. In the meantime, however, Cardinal Ratzinger's position had strengthened further as he polled 65 votes.
By the time of the second ballot on Tuesday morning, Cardinal Ratzinger had polled 72 votes, just five short of the two-thirds or 77 votes necessary for election.
At this point, Cardinal Bergoglio had edged up to 40 votes, not enough to win the election but perhaps enough to block Cardinal Ratzinger for as many as another 31 ballots.
The 1996 apostolic constitution, Universi Dominic Gregis, governing the election of the pope, stipulates that after 34 ballots, a simple rather than a two-thirds majority is enough to win.
It was at this point, according to the diarist, that events took a dramatic turn with Cardinal Bergoglio feeling increasingly uneasy about his own candidacy and eventually calling on his supporters not to vote for him.
At the final and fourth ballot on the afternoon of Tuesday, April 19th, Cardinal Ratzinger picked up 84 votes, more than the two-thirds majority, while Cardinal Bergoglio had 25.