SPAIN: The Opposition is warning of the break-up of Spain as the prime minister considers plans for increased Catalan autonomy, writes Paddy Woodworth in Madrid
"Spain is at risk of being Balkanised," former prime minister José María Aznar declared recently.
This is only the latest in a series of dire predictions of national disintegration made by Aznar over the summer, loyally echoed by Mariano Rajoy, his successor as leader of the conservative Partido Popular (PP).
The conservatives claim that the current prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, has become a puppet dancing to the tune of radical Catalan nationalism, and that he is a man motivated by either "astronomical ignorance, manifest irresponsibility or supine idiocy", in Rajoy's words.
This is intemperate language even in the colourful tradition of Spanish political rhetoric.
Opinion polls show that the PP is singing only to its own gallery, with Zapatero and his Socialist Party (PSOE) more popular now than when they were elected in 2004.
Nevertheless, Zapatero's willingness to engage with Catalan aspirations to expand their already extensive powers of self-government will present him with challenges which have not been faced by any prime minister since Spain's transition from dictatorship to democracy in the late 1970s.
The "second transition" on which he has embarked could change the contours of the political landscape here almost as dramatically as the first one did.
The question is whether this upheaval will permit the creation of new and improved democratic institutions, or simply put the old ones under severe strain.
His first big test comes over the next few weeks, as the Catalans negotiate the final text of their proposals for greatly extended powers, both symbolic and financial, in their own parliament. The debate will be guided by the Catalan section of the Socialist Party, under the charismatic leadership of Pasqual Maragall, who as mayor of Barcelona transformed the city for the 1992 Olympics.
Transforming Barcelona's relationship with Madrid is a bigger headache.
Maragall leads a coalition government in Catalonia. Among his coalition partners are the pro-independence and anti-monarchist Catalan Republic Left (ERC). This alliance causes apoplexy in the PP, which regards the ERC as friends of the Basque terrorist group Eta and enemies of the Spanish nation.
The ERC is certainly radical, and its thinking is reflected in the statute of autonomy currently proposed by the Catalan government. This document redefines the region as a "nation", rather than a "nationality", a proposition that Spanish nationalists in the PP denounce as a threat to the unity of the state, but which Zapatero has said he will accept if it is found to be constitutional.
This opens the way towards a new configuration of Spain as a federation, as the Basques, and quite possibly other groups, would follow suit.
The Catalan financial proposals are even more problematic, because they may envisage fiscal powers which boldly push out the boundaries of autonomy within the nation-state.
The new statute would see Catalonia not only levy its own taxes, but set its own limits to its contribution to the Spanish exchequer, and accept no financial directives from Madrid.
Here Zapatero finds his own party deeply divided, with PSOE leaders in poorer autonomous communities loudly denouncing what they perceive as a move by a rich region to renege on its duty of solidarity to the whole Spanish state.
Other wealthy regions are closely watching these developments, which could put the whole principle of redistributing wealth across regional boundaries under threat.
Zapatero is in an awkward position on these issues. He promised the Catalan voters, in regional elections in 2003, that he would not, as prime minister, oppose any statute that came to Madrid with the support of the Catalan parliament.
He now argues, not very convincingly, that he meant this to apply only to aspects strictly internal to Catalonia, and which did not impinge on either the constitution or other regions.
The Catalan parliament has its own problems with the proposals. The mainstream Catalan nationalists of Convergencia i Unió (CiU) are smarting in opposition, having been ousted after 23 years in power by the Socialists and the ERC two years ago. They do not want to see anyone else steal the glory of bringing new powers to Catalonia. The Catalan constitutional court has raised a number of objections, which are likely to be amplified by its Spanish counterpart.
Nevertheless, a statute which aims to reshape Spanish-Catalan relations fundamentally will almost certainly be presented to the Madrid parliament by the first week of October.
Zapatero's response will be critical. If he approves a statute which bends the limits of the Spanish constitution, he will have passed a point of no return on a path towards radical reform of the state.
If he opposes it, or shelters behind judicial moves to declare it unconstitutional, he may lose the ERC's support in the Madrid parliament for his minority government.
He would then either have to call general elections, or seek alternative support from the even more fractious Basques, which many in his own party would regard as a leap from the frying pan into the fire.
Early elections might be his best option, as he would benefit from being seen by centrist Spaniards as putting a brake on irresponsible aspirations by the regional nationalists, without resorting to the strident rhetoric of the PP. And elections might also have the virtue of forcing him to define clearly a reform project which has remained fuzzy and vague through this administration.