It has taken seven months, a march on the Dail and two bouts of "Blue Flu" to get the two sides in the Garda pay dispute to this week's position. Negotiators are expected to spend the rest of the week hammering out the details of an initial pay offer of 9 per cent.
Two key elements are believed to be the breakdown of the increase across various grades and the length of time payments are to be backdated.
A change of venue - from Garda headquarters to the former Department of Equality and Law Reform offices on Mespil Road - seems to have marked a new phase in the talks. Both sides are hopeful that this is the endgame in what one participant described yesterday as a "pretty seismic period".
With the talks back on, the threats to disrupt the Tour de France and stage further Blue Flu days have receded.
However, GRA vice-president Mr Michael Kirby was adamant last night that industrial action had been "suspended, not abandoned".
Neither the Government nor Garda management underestimates the volatility of the GRA after its surprise call for the last Blue Flu day with less than 48 hours' notice. The dispute has helped to mend the split that led to the setting up of the Garda Federation four years ago. But the GRA executive is an unwieldy 28-member body, with leaders competing with each other to be seen to respond to the anger and frustration of members. By Friday the association hopes to have a detailed pay proposal with which to ballot its membership of more than 8,000 rank-and-file gardai. But senior GRA sources said it could take until next week before the deal is on paper. A postal ballot means it could take a further week for the members to accept or reject the deal.
The Government reopened the Programme for Competitiveness and Work (PCW) talks for gardai in November 1997 after months of simmering unrest. The GRA walked out of talks on April 1st, when an initial offer of 5.5 per cent was made. Later that month an offer of 7 per cent was angrily rejected, and more than 3,500 gardai marched on Leinster House. Four days after the last Blue Flu day the GRA decided to re-enter talks after the intervention of the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern.
The GRA has always insisted on a two-phase pay deal - the first dealing with past productivity and the second to take in changes to be brought in under the Strategic Management Review (SMI).
It has drawn a line in the sand of 15 per cent, with no strings attached, and some senior GRA sources are concerned that the membership will not accept what may be seen as a climbdown to 9 per cent.
The initial offer is also understood to include a 2 per cent "down payment" on future productivity under SMI, with 1.5 per cent allocated to past productivity and the original offer of 5.5 per cent making up the rest. Separate increases under the Partnership 2000 agreement, which the Garda associations have not signed, have stacked up to 4.75 per cent. "That deal is there for the signing," one talks participant said. The GRA is determined this figure does not get lumped in with the 9 per cent to put a gloss on the basic pay offer. The key elements to be worked out in the next few days include the application of the increase across the 14 grades that apply to GRA members. Last year's prison officers' increase of 12.9 per cent has been held up as the model for a garda increase. That increase ranged from 5.2 per cent to the top 12.9 per cent applying only to long-serving officers.
The GRA will be anxious not to be seen to repeat the mistakes of 1994 and sell its younger members short. Two-thirds of the force have more than 12 years' service. Only one in five entering the force can expect promotion to sergeant.
The application of the increase is expected to produce a domino effect on other grades, with the Association of Garda Sergeants and Inspectors (AGSI) pressing for increases which will keep the basic pay of sergeants above that of rank-and-file members. And a deal for AGSI is expected to lead to a knock-on deal for superintendents and chief superintendents. The second element to be worked out is the backdating of the increase, with the GRA understood to be pressing for a four-year retrospective payment. The final offer is more likely to be two years, leading to payments of up to £1,700 per garda as soon as the deal is accepted. This "almost immediate" payment would be seen as a sweetener to any deal.
Talks about a phase-two rise look set to take place in September, when the radical measures included in SMI will be on the table. These will include changes to rostering, "civilianisation" and performance-related productivity.