Baghdad impotent as war-torn Iraq stumbles towards civil war

IRAQ: Once a political powerhouse in Iraq, Ayatollah Sistani has lost much of his influence, writes Michael Jansen.

IRAQ: Once a political powerhouse in Iraq, Ayatollah Sistani has lost much of his influence, writes Michael Jansen.

Since the attack on the Samarra shrine in February, Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, a moderating figure in the country, has lost much of his influence over the majority Shia community.

In a bid to reassert his grip, the ayatollah summoned prime minister Nuri Maliki on Saturday and told him to impose order on the war-torn country.

The ayatollah made the point that if the government fails in this mission, the two largest Shia militias, the Mahdi Army and Badr Corps, could not be disbanded in compliance with the constitution because they are the only forces able to protect Shias from attacks by insurgent and Sunni enemies.

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But the government and the foreign forces based in Iraq can neither curb the resistance nor halt the rise of ethno-sectarian warfare which has, over the past seven months, overtaken the insurgency as the main source of violence in Iraq.

During this period, Ayatollah Sistani has remained largely silent and isolated at his home and offices in the holy city of Najaf.

Aides claim he is preparing to withdraw from politics and plans to deal only with religious matters.

Two years ago, the highly revered ayatollah was the most potent political figure in Iraq. He persuaded the Shias to tolerate the US invasion and occupation, imposed on the US occupation administration the one-man-one-vote system, insisted that the constitution be drawn up by an elected rather than an appointed body, and ensured that Islam is the main source of law in Iraq.

But the ayatollah's clout has been undermined by violence and the refusal of the two Shia-led governments to secure a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign troops.

His place has been taken by the brash young cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of the Mahdi Army, blamed for most of the attacks on the Sunni community.

Mr al-Sadr, who is based in the southern town of Kufa, has always been an opponent of the occupation and has repeatedly called for the departure of foreign forces.

Members of his party, the largest faction in parliament, run social service ministries and a large number of his followers have taken up employment in the police, army, and facilities protection force.

In an attempt to counteract the rise of Mr al-Sadr, the ayatollah's aides tried to organise tribal levies to protect Shia towns and villages, but this has not been a success.

Yesterday, the impotence of both Najaf and Baghdad were dramatically demonstrated when gunmen killed one of the ayatollah's aides in the southern city of Amara and the handover of control of Iraq's military by US-led forces to the Iraqi government was postponed.

The transfer of command was meant to mark a new step in the resumption of authority by Iraq over its own affairs.

The arrest of the alleged number two of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Hamed al-Saidi, is unlikely to be regarded as a major coup because the group is no longer a major component of the insurgency. Furthermore, this development was overshadowed by Saturday's slaughter of 14 Pakistani and Indian pilgrims travelling to Kerbala for a Shia festival and attacks on civilians across the country.

The number of violent incidents has risen by 24 per cent to 792 a week and the daily average of Iraqi fatalities has doubled to 120.

This has prompted 39,000 Arab families to take refuge in the northern Kurdish provinces, where security is far better than in the rest of the country. But this influx has contributed to tensions with the Kurds, who do not want Arabs flooding into the area, which they want for their state.

Yesterday a frustrated Premier Maliki commanded the Kurdish regional authority, headed by Massoud Barzani, to stop displaying the Kurdish flag and to fly solely Iraq's national red, white and green tricolour. Since Mr Barzani, head of the Kurdish Democratic Party, personally issued the order to raise the Kurdish communal standard rather than the Iraqi flag, it could be difficult for him to back down.

Another example of Baghdad's impotence was the demand put forward on Saturday by a convention of 300 Sunni tribal leaders for charges to be dropped against ousted president Saddam Hussein, his release and return to power.

The sheikhs, including the head of the al-Obeidi tribe which has a million members, threaten to stage a popular uprising.

This amounts to an openly declared challenge to the policy of "de-Baathification" adopted by the US occupation administration and the Shia-dominated successor governments.