Is Bertie Ahern going to have a referendum on abortion or is he not, or is he deviously teeing up the parting of the ways with his PD partners? He has so trenchantly asserted there will be no election before 2002 that he needs a pretext to face the people while there is still a stretch in the evenings.
Micheal Martin did no more than articulate on television what had been currency in the corridors in here for some days. Bertie had let it be known that he wanted a referendum in the lifetime of the Government, and October seemed the likely date. The Harney/ McCreevy axis - a closer and more cohesive and more proactive political force than the PDs - seemed to indicate the contrary view. Then in typical Bertiespeak from Brazil the Taoiseach seemed to disagree with Micheal Martin and agree with the Tanaiste. In fact all he said was that the Cabinet would not take a decision until after the summer holiday which is as close to meaningless as it comes since no decision would be taken before the August holiday anyway.
So as the summer beaches beckon, Bertie will hope that he has sent both sides off happy. Mary Harney and Charlie McCreevy believe there will not be another divisive referendum but Harry Blaney and Mildred Fox are convinced of the opposite.
Meanwhile, Bertie's "non-political" communications unit will closely monitor the fallout. Can he win such a referendum? Would it divide Fine Gael and Labour? Would the PDs walk the plank on the issue? Is it really a suitable issue on which to break up the Government? Would a free vote keep Mary Harney on board? Can the PDs stand by the Republic and acquiesce in such a referendum? The real question is why after four years in office the question of a referendum should arise only now.
Abortion is not an issue on which to play politics. Is the Government oblivious to the implications of stirring up passions on the right to life of the unborn while the Taoiseach at the same time dismisses calls from the Opposition that the Dail be recalled to discuss the rights of autistic children? In the maelstrom of debate on the Jamie Sinnott case there could hardly be a more insensitive time to recommence thinking aloud about amending the Constitution on the rights of the unborn.
What about the rights of the living? The Taoiseach may consider that after the Nice debacle he needs a referendum that he can win. Or he may feel that he needs to keep faith with that sliver of the self-proclaimed pro-life electorate who voted for Fianna Fail in 1997 based on Ahern's pledge. He may yet discover that the modern Ireland will not be impressed by a cosmetic amendment.
Meanwhile, there have been few takers for Bertie's Mae West-style invitation to come up and see him sometime about the timing of the election. That invitation separated the sore heads from the party loyalists and temporarily helped quell dissent in the ranks. At the same time it leaves the Taoiseach an escape hatch just in case. Apparently Bertie will borrow from the pioneering work of Clann na Poblachta in 1948 when Noel Hartnett made a very effective short film for cinema release. This one will prominently feature Bertie as Braveheart of the Celtic Tiger and will be ready by autumn. What are cinema-goers likely to make of it? Fianna Fail TDs are encountering less warmth on the doorsteps than is suggested by the polls. People may appear to have become inured to what continues day after amazing day at Dublin Castle.
Some FF colleagues, however, detect an uneasy signal that they are lying in wait in the long grass. Perversely, the Opposition parties may not benefit proportionately. Where there is an independent candidate of some stature, they are likely to be the first beneficiaries. But the cumulative effect is likely, in the opinion of some old-timers, to impact most adversely on Fianna Fail. Dublin Castle will not feature in Bertie the Braveheart.
As the Abbeylara inquiry is tested in the High Court, another parliamentary inquiry gets under way. Survivors of the Dirt inquiry, Sean Doherty and Pat Rabbitte, team up again and this time are joined by Jim Higgins, Austin Curry, Martin Brady and Noel O'Flynn in an investigation of what is described as "the mini-CTC signalling project". The very boring title seems calculated to conceal the real purpose of the inquiry. Judging from chairman Doherty's low-key, but comprehensive, opening statement, it might be termed more accurately "Esat, CIE and the mini-CTC project". This one looks set to rival some of the goings-on at Dublin Castle.
Nothing so much typifies the greed that now runs through Irish society as the ransom demands of the IFA to facilitate the construction of necessary roads and infrastructure. Only a short few months ago all sections of society donned the green jersey in support of a farming community threatened by foot-and-mouth disease. This practical patriotism cost many people a lot of money and even threatened the livelihoods of some. For those who lost business there was no compensation and no cheques in the post. They struggled on in the national interest. It is not that agriculture holds the pivotal position in our economy that it once did. But people responded to the call for solidarity even when the more valuable tourism industry seemed likely to take serious damage. How soon eaten bread is forgotten! It is like foot-and-mouth never happened. Irrespective of the economic consequences for the rest of society, farmers seek a doubling of what already appears to most people as reasonable compensation for lands compulsorily acquired. Social solidarity is still a concept to which many farmers are strangers.