Best hope is what was almost within grasp in July

The Mitchell review is about one of two things: the full implementation of the Belfast Agreement or a cynical battle between …

The Mitchell review is about one of two things: the full implementation of the Belfast Agreement or a cynical battle between the Ulster Unionist Party and Sinn Fein as to who takes the blame for the collapse of the deal.

Former US senator George Mitchell always travels hopefully. He's an American can-do merchant. His nature is to evade the fatigue and despair that has gripped many pro-agreement politicians, but his vigour and confidence will be tested in the next week or so.

The republican and unionist political posing and manoeuvring of recent days suggest more of the same in the initial days of the review. Mr Mitchell will need all his guile and determination to concentrate minds for that fraught enterprise.

Gerry Adams and David Trimble meet their ruling executives respectively in Dublin and Belfast today. It's now time for the two leaders to make the call. Gerry Adams will tell his ardchomhairle to go for the review. And it will go for it, albeit with reservations. Mr Adams is pledging to participate in the enterprise "positively and fully".

READ MORE

David Trimble must be a little bit more circumspect, but if he wants to engage, the likelihood is his executive will give him the go-ahead.

There's a suspicion that whatever decision is taken it's all about tactics and damage limitation. Mr Trimble tells this week's New Statesman magazine that there's little prospect of the review succeeding.

Mr Adams's official spokesman says the consistent line from within the republican constituency is that the review is a hopeless cause.

Opening shots, or the two main protagonists telling us how it is likely to unfold - or, perhaps, unravel? Seamus Mallon believes the two parties are playing "silly season" politics, that on Monday they will both tramp back to Castle Buildings to parley with Mr Mitchell, with each other, and the rest of the parties.

One could expect the republican movement to be experiencing some relief at having dodged any penalty for the IRA murder of Charles Bennett and the Florida gun-running episode, and therefore to be in a generous frame of mind - but that's far from the mood.

The feeling among republicans is is still that unionists spurned a good deal when they rejected the Way Forward document in July.

There's lingering anger and resentment. What was on the table over decommissioning during the Way Forward negotiations in late June, early July is now stuffed in the bin, they say. No sign of any give there.

Equally, the unionist disposition is very jaundiced. The "No" camp within the UUP would love the whole enterprise to expire quietly. John Taylor says he's not playing with Sinn Fein. David Trimble and his Assembly colleagues say they might. Lord Molyneaux makes a cameo appearance and tells the 120-strong UUP executive, no surrender.

There's still talk of a judicial review over Mo Mowlam's judgment that the IRA ceasefire is intact. The thought of next Thursday's Patten report on policing is making unionists very edgy. Indeed, some unionists believe Patten's recommendations will do to the agreement what the iceberg did to the Titanic.

Those in the general public who placed faith in the Belfast Agreement are weary and deflated, but they are not stupid. Nonsense posturing annoys them. Do the business, or don't do the business, is the prevailing view.

So, is there any point to this initiative? There is - if, to use a favourite phrase of Jack Charlton's - Sinn Fein and the UUP stop playing silly buggers.

If this review is to work, Mr Mitchell must employ his experience and authority to coax Sinn Fein back to its position of July 1st. That was when it formally expressed its conviction that it "could" persuade the IRA to disarm by May 2000. Mr Adams even said he believed decommissioning "would" happen.

It was the basis on which Gen John de Chastelain in his report on decommissioning the following day was able to say he believed "decommissioning can be completed" by the May date.

This was in the week of the hothouse negotiations at Castle Buildings where Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern staked some credibility on striking a deal. Mr Blair spoke of a "seismic shift" in republican thinking and both he and the Taoiseach seemed to interpret what was on offer as an IRA commitment to decommission.

That declaration, had unionists accepted its bona fides, was to be followed by a statement from Mr Adams and, it was expected, a statement from the IRA. But for unionists, "could" and "would" was a world of unacceptable uncertainty apart.

Mr Trimble, with a nervous party and at the height of the marching season and facing into Drumcree, didn't jump with Sinn Fein. The UUP rejected the document, although some believed that with different timing Mr Trimble might at least have tried to sell it to his party.

What followed in mid-July was the tragedy-cum-farce of the formation of a brief useless executive with Mr Trimble and his party skulking in party headquarters while up at Stormont the "No" camp crowed and the "Yes" side was crestfallen.

The first task for Mr Mitchell must be to expunge some of the bad blood. That will be difficult because there is still a lot of poison between Sinn Fein and the UUP.

As Charles Bennett rests in his grave, some republicans and unionists seem more intent on rehearsing their tired lines of antagonism and getting their retaliation in first rather than building up trust - notwithstanding the recent secret meetings between the two sides involving mid-level Assembly members.

It's all about guns and government but that won't stop the posturing. Sinn Fein already has retreated to its academic position of stating that unionists are breaking the letter of the agreement. The UUP sends the usual mixed signals, while also indicating, initially at least, it will engage in the review - but in a semi-detached fashion.

Were there a true resolve, a deal could be done and done quickly. Mr Mitchell's main task is to ensure that this is about real politics and not just about who carries the can for the failure of the agreement.

The overture to the review may be a protracted affair to allow the Patten report to be considered properly. Mr Mitchell, though, does not have limitless time. He'll give the parties some slack and then reign them in, insisting, "Call it: deal or no deal?"

In the end it will be all down to sequencing. The best hope for success rests on some variation of what was achieved, and rejected by unionists, during the Way Forward talks. Ken Maginnis told this paper he could live with an executive being formed contemporaneous with an IRA commitment that it "would" begin the "process" of decommissioning, and complete it by May 2000.

The "process", as Gen de Chastelain made clear in his report, involves first the IRA appointing a member to deal with the commission, and then figuring out how IRA weapons would be put beyond use - the modalities, as it is called. That would take time, and would allow the formation of an executive before actual disarmament.

Whether Mr Mitchell, with assistance from the parties and the semantic genius of the top-notch civil servants in the British and Irish governments, can fine-tune that formula to ensure that both sides save face is a big question. And even if they can, there's no guarantee that both parties would accept such a blueprint.

If there's a will, and genuine mutual engagement between Sinn Fein and the UUP, then there's almost certainly a way. If not, the review will be a sad, futile exercise in blame apportionment.