Big increase in cases of `real' flu expected

A large increase in the number of cases of flu is expected over the coming days, according to the National Reference Laboratory…

A large increase in the number of cases of flu is expected over the coming days, according to the National Reference Laboratory in Dublin, which with GPs monitors levels of influenza in the population.

The flu virus - type A - was detected in Ireland during mid-December, and confirmed cases remained low up to Christmas. But clinical indications and anecdotal evidence suggest a large increase in people coming down with flu-like infections.

This has been confirmed by GPs, although many patients have "routine winter heavy colds", which can be very debilitating, rather than flu.

The true picture will emerge over the coming few weeks, a spokesman for the NRL in UCD said. While there had been a sudden increase in the number of reports of flu-like illness, there had been no huge increase in specimens delivered to the laboratory by GPs for analysis.

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The laboratory is to investigate reports of people who had been vaccinated succumbing to flu. If proven, it would indicate the presence of a new strain in Europe.

The chairman of the Irish College of General Practitioners, Dr Brian Coffey, said that based on reports in Cork, there was a high number of respiratory infections including some cases of "real flu", although he did not believe it had reached epidemic levels yet.

Call-outs for GPs had at least doubled in recent days, with one colleague having to deal with 35 house calls in one day, three times normal, Dr Coffey said.

A Galway city GP, Dr Michael Coughlan, said indications of flu levels were "rather tenuous" until scientific analysis had been completed.

Clinical evidence suggested that those coming into surgeries had normal respiratory illness, but some of those confined to bed had influenza-type symptoms.

Kevin O'Sullivan

Kevin O'Sullivan

Kevin O'Sullivan is Environment and Science Editor and former editor of The Irish Times