THE Republican primary election in New Hampshire today, which could decide who will be the party's presidential candidate in November, is such a close fought contest that the outcome may be determined by the weather.
An ice storm is forecast for the New England state today, which could keep apathetic voters at home and benefit the candidate with the most enthusiastic following, conservative Mr Pat Buchanan.
The latest polls show Mr Buchanan in a statistical dead heat with one time favourite, Senator Bob Dole.
The Tennessee Governor, Mr Lamar Alexander, who advocates moderate conservatism, has steadily gained ground in recent days, partly because he has declined to use television commercials to attack his opponents.
The polls reveal that voters are cynical at the negative tone of the bitter Republican debate, and a low turnout is expected.
This sentiment may be working to Mr Alexander's advantage. "About 900 people turned up at an eve of poll rally in Derry to hear him play the piano and express amazement" at the fact that Mr Dole had no message other than to attack him.
The Dole campaign flooded television with commercials over the weekend calling Mr Alexander a tax and spend liberal who is soft on crime.
"He's decent, that's the word," said Ms Kathy Loveless outside the Bedford Presbyterian Church where Mr Alexander and his family prayed on Sunday. Support for Mr Alexander is strongest among women.
A CNN poll gave Mr Buchanan 25 per cent, Mr Dole 24 per cent, and Mr Alexander 20 per cent ABC television had Mr Dole ahead with 26 per cent, one point over Mr Buchanan, with Mr Alexander eight points behind.
A third survey, by the American Research Group, gave Mr Buchanan a clear 28-23 point margin over the Senate Majority leader.
Publisher Mr Steve Forbes, level with Mr Dole at 25 points just over a week ago, has slipped to between 13 and 18 per cent. The proponent of a flat tax policy, he vowed yesterday to stay in the race even if he finished fourth.
The winner of New Hampshire traditionally goes on to gain the party's nomination, but the bitter In fighting among Republicans makes this year's contest unpredictable.
A prolonged three way contest in the coming weeks would allow Mr Buchanan to dictate the debate and there are rumours of Mr Alexander signing on as Senator Dole's running mate after New Hampshire to ensure his defeat.
New Hampshire ended 72 year old Senator Dole's presidential ambitions in 1980 and 1988. "1 smell victory in the air now," he said at a noisy rally on Sunday night as he warned that a Buchanan victory would split Republicans and clear the way for President Clinton, unchallenged in the Democratic primary, to win re election on November 5th.
"We've got to bring the party together to beat Bill Clinton. We don't want issues tub divide us," lie said.
On Sunday, Mr Dole got the backing of former rival, Senator Phil Gramm, who had attacked him for compromising with Democrats.
Mr Gramm in accused Mr Buchanan of attracting support from Louisiana politician, Mr David Duke, a former Ku Klux Klan leader.
Another factor in this intriguing contest is that Mr Buchanan's support may be stronger than polls suggest, as people are less likely to declare themselves in favour of a candidate depicted as extreme.
Support for his social conservative message has increased among unemployed men and the Christian right. Among Catholics it has gone up from 20 to 31 per cent, the polls show.