BRITAIN: The personal political stakes have been dramatically raised for British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Chancellor Gordon Brown in their battle over the terms of the British government's decision on a euro referendum.
It was confirmed yesterday that in a statement to MPs on June 9th, the Chancellor will deliver the government's verdict on whether the UK should immediately join the single currency.
But with the Chancellor believed to have already ruled that four of his famous five "economic tests" have been failed at this point, attention was already turning to the question of whether Mr Blair and Mr Brown would agree to revisit the Treasury's economic assessment and so keep alive the realistic possibility of a referendum before the next general election.
The leader of the Commons, Dr John Reid, echoed Number 10's denial of BBC reports that Mr Blair had reluctantly bowed to Mr Brown's judgment that the economics were "not right" and that a referendum was therefore less likely in the life of the present parliament.
The renewed suggestion that the more sceptical Chancellor had triumphed in his battle of wills with the Prime Minister underlined the imperative for Mr Blair - now six years in office - to conclude a British government statement of intent sufficient to preserve his European credentials abroad and the belief of his Europhile supporters at home.
Mr Blair has been warned the cross-party Britain in Europe campaign could collapse if the government rules out a referendum before the next election.
And while the recently resigned Mr Robin Cook has echoed Mr Brown's fear of providing "a running commentary" on the economic tests, he has led demands that a decision not to join now should be accompanied by a clear timetable by which the government intends to meet them.
Following yesterday's announcement, the Prime Minister's spokesman insisted "no final decision has yet been made", and that the Treasury's assessment of the tests would not "pre-empt" a collective cabinet decision.
Ministers are being given 18 technical documents to inform a series of trilateral meetings between the Prime Minister and Chancellor and individual departmental ministers ahead of a final cabinet discussion and decision on June 5th or 6th.
Mr Blair's spokesman insisted this was not an exercise in window-dressing: "What this process underlines, as the Prime Minister said to cabinet, is that no final decision has yet been made, that it will involve the whole cabinet and that it will take account of all the relevant factors."
However, the Number 10 line was greeted with widespread scepticism at Westminster as the Conservative leader, Mr Iain Duncan Smith, hailed a cabinet "split" on what Mr Blair told ministers was "one of the most important decisions" his government would ever make.
As disappointed Liberal Democrats accused Mr Blair's government of "timidity" and a failure of political will, spokesman Mr Menzies Campbell opined: "The decision has in effect been taken. The Prime Minister has acceded to the Chancellor's view that the economic conditions are not suitable."
With the government's decision due on the 20th anniversary of Margaret Thatcher's second general election victory, Mr Duncan Smith claimed government infighting had descended to the level of "pantomime".
"The government isn't deciding anything on the economic issues. What the government is trying to do is figure out how they can settle their differences between Gordon Brown and his faction and Tony Blair and his faction and the undecideds in the middle.
"This whole indecision on the euro is affecting everything they (the government) do and damaging the quality of life of the British people. "