Blair's 'new social model' suggests divisive EU presidency

European Diary: For most participants and observers, last week's European Union summit in Brussels was a fiasco caused mainly…

European Diary: For most participants and observers, last week's European Union summit in Brussels was a fiasco caused mainly by Britain's refusal to accept a cut in its annual budget rebate.

For Tony Blair, however, the summit was an energising, cathartic moment that could mark the start of a renewal of the European project based on a "new social model".

Mr Blair will return to Brussels on Thursday to tell the European Parliament of his plans for Britain's six-month EU presidency, which starts on July 1st. He remains determined to push for accelerated economic reform, and will even try to conclude the budget negotiations that collapsed on Saturday morning.

Writing in the Guardian yesterday, the EU trade commissioner, Peter Mandelson (who remains close to Mr Blair), called for an "open debate" on Europe's economic and social model.

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"It won't work if advocates of the old 'social' Europe simply continue as before, regardless of globalisation. It won't work if economic reformers appear to think that acceptance of globalisation is all that matters, regardless of the social action needed to make it work for all. Economic reformers need to adopt a new language and a new set of priorities," he wrote.

If Mr Blair and Mr Mandelson believe their vision of a new European model is a unifying one, it is not a view shared by many EU leaders.

Luxembourg's prime minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, who will stay away from Mr Blair's speech on Thursday, yesterday accused Britain of trying to split the EU.

"Britain is launching its presidency with a programme of division," he told the Sueddeutsche Zeitung.

The EU development commissioner, Louis Michel, yesterday accused Mr Blair of seeking to destroy the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and told Belgian radio that the commission would support the British presidency only insofar as it promoted "more Europe" and deeper integration.

"If it's about building or cementing a purely market Europe, then I think it will be difficult for him," he said.

Mr Blair has written off Germany's Gerhard Schröder and France's Jacques Chirac as potential political partners, and is already wooing Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy whom he hopes will succeed them.

Ms Merkel and Mr Sarkozy are undoubtedly closer to the British outlook than the leaders now in office in Berlin and Paris, but it would be unwise to bet on a new Franco-German-British alliance emerging if they win power.

Mr Blair's conduct at last week's summit has reinforced a widespread perception in Europe that he is an unreliable partner who is too willing to sacrifice allies for the sake of benign headlines in Britain's popular press.

After all, Mr Blair signed up to the 2002 deal to fix farm subsidies until 2013 which he sought to reopen at the summit.

Perhaps the most serious blow to the British prime minister's standing in Europe was the late-night show of European solidarity by leaders from the EU's new member states.

The new member states were the biggest losers at the summit because they need an early budget deal to plan for important spending projects that require EU funding.

By the end of negotiations, almost all 25 leaders wanted a deal but Mr Blair and his Dutch counterpart, Jan-Peter Balkenende, refused to accept anything less than their opening negotiating position.

Britain cannot plausibly play the role of "honest broker" required of the EU presidency in any new round of budget negotiations, so no agreement is likely until Austria takes over the presidency at the beginning of 2006.

Mr Blair's debate about the European social model could play a useful role in the broader debate about Europe's future that EU leaders hope will plot a way out of the crisis over the constitution.

If Mr Blair and Mr Mandelson believe Britain is about to assume the political leadership of Europe in more than a formal sense, however, they are both almost certainly going to be disappointed.

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton is China Correspondent of The Irish Times