MANCHESTER LETTER:BORIS JOHNSON is the political equivalent of Ryanair's Michael O'Leary, minus the latter's occasional bouts of crudity. Both are one-offs, who happily get away with doing things that would sink the careers of others within minutes.
In Manchester this week, Johnson, who is running to stay on as mayor of London next year, was in his usual extravagant form, bounding late into meetings before unleashing a cascade of beautifully-polished Latin analogies.
However, he has flaws. Accused of several extra-marital affairs, prone to gaffes aplenty, Johnson has lost a number of close allies who were forced to resign over dodgy expenses. Equally, many Londoners believe that he wants to be prime minister more than he wants to be mayor.
Described by one of his former editors as one who behaves like “a hyper-intelligent two-year-old”, Johnson has a remarkable talent for being forgiven, no matter how large his sins, simply because he can when he chooses be utterly charming.
Next May, he faces Ken Livingstone, the man he beat for the mayoralty four years ago. Livingstone, a veteran of London politics since the days of the Greater London Council’s battles with Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s, desperately wants to return to high office.
Given the climate, Livingstone should win. Labour, pollster Peter Kellner points out, came out ahead of the Conservatives in London in May 2010 despite its poor showing elsewhere, while the latest polls put it 20 points ahead of the Conservatives in the city.
However, the mayoral election is different, dependent on personality to a degree that is unusual even in today’s personality-obsessed politics. Here, Boris – for he is, like Charlie Haughey, principally known by his first name, scores.
Livingstone too is of course universally known as Ken, but for now Johnson’s brand is bigger. One in five Londoners who say they would vote Labour in a general election go on to declare that they will opt for Johnson next year, simply because he has “likeability”.
Running in 2000, Livingstone, then an independent candidate, easily defeated Conservative Steve Norris by 58 points to 42, while in 2004, by which time he was back in the Labour fold, he polled eight points ahead of Labour’s performance in council elections. In 2008, when Labour’s fortunes had dipped again, he again outperformed the Labour brand by three points – but this was not enough to stop Johnson when it came to a head-to-head contest in the second round.
This time around, Johnson is the one to enjoy the bonus, with Labour running 15 points ahead of the Conservatives: “(Voters) tend to think that Ken has lost touch with ordinary Londoners, and that Boris is decisive and sticks to what he believes in,” says Kellner.
The August riots, however, damaged him. On holidays when they erupted, he was late in returning and got a difficult time from an angry public when he went to view burned-out buildings in Croydon.
However, Livingstone failed to capitalise. In his first TV interviews, he was seen as being “soft” by Londoners, who wanted to hear outrage rather than see the riots blamed on Conservative-inspired social decay.
Later he toughened up the rhetoric, but first impressions last. For now, Livingstone believes that Johnson’s Achilles’ heel is transport – a subject that can engage commuter Londoners, who live by timetables, for hours.
Here, the Conservative is vulnerable. Prices have risen by nearly 60 per cent during his reign. The standard bus fare is now £1.30 compared to 90p when he took over.
In 2008, Johnson’s campaign concentrated on London’s suburbs, but suburbanites are now chafing against higher commuting costs – even though Johnson argues that he has won £12 billion worth of investment for the network despite tough economic times.
“Not since the days of our Victorian forefathers has there been improvements of this scale ... ” he says.
In office, Johnson has impressed many, confounding expectations that he would not have the appetite for grinding hard work, becoming a symbol for the city as he rides on one of London’s bikes-for-hire – universally known as “Boris Bikes”.
In Manchester this week at the Conservative Party’s conference, party managers were terrified that Johnson “would wander off the reservation”, though he remained mostly inside the fences – bar offering support for a referendum on EU membership at a fringe meeting.
Seen by some as a contender for No 10, he is a thorn in David Cameron’s side, particularly since he has clashed repeatedly with the Treasury over funding for London. In his eyes, London is the UK economy’s motor and the Treasury are pygmies for not being able to see that.
Late on Monday night, he enthralled Conservatives at another fringe meeting. Describing Livingstone as “The Old Iguana”, he said the Labour politician had left City Hall in 2008 “with the shredder still running”.
Ken had, however, left behind a store of taxpayer-funded Chateauneuf du Pape, though the cellar still exists, he said: “However, I don’t want him to take London back.”
Boris will have to hope that Ken does not return to uncork the surviving bottles.
