ANALYSIS: The latest violence has caught both the opposition and government by surprise
IRANIAN SECURITY forces reportedly detained seven prominent dissidents yesterday following Sunday’s widespread anti-government demonstrations which left at least eight and perhaps as many as 15 dead.
Among the fatalities was the nephew of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi. Protesters were tear-gassed outside a Tehran hospital after it was discovered that the body of Sayed Ali Mousavi had been removed to prevent his funeral from becoming the focus of further demonstrations.
Opposition spokesmen claim he was targeted as he was taking part in a huge rally marking the seventh day since the death of Grand Ayatollah Hosein Ali Montazeri, the spiritual mentor of the protest movement.
The memorial for the “martyr” Montazeri, who died at 87 from natural causes, coincided with mass Shia commemorations of Ashoura, the seventh-century martyrdom of the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson, Hussein. The linking of the two “martyrs” has great emotional resonance among Shias who mourn slain imams throughout the year.
Opposition leaders may have thought they could avoid a crackdown by the Basij militia and police because of heightened religious sensitivities on Ashoura. Mahdi Karroubi, a reformist cleric, castigated the government for shedding blood on the sacred day and said even the shah respected the sanctity of the occasion.
Opposition strategists may have miscalculated the reaction because they underestimated the fears of the regime. The Revolutionary Guards Corps, which has assumed charge of security, cannot afford to tolerate the disturbances which have taken place every day since the grand ayatollah’s death. The guards corps and government are certain to have become alarmed by the determination of the opposition to persist with protests and the readiness of participants to lash out at motorcycle-mounted Basij militiamen who had previously bullied and attacked demonstrators without retaliation.
Reports that Basijis have refused to confront protesters could also be worrying the authorities. Furthermore, as the protests have grown in size and spread throughout the country, demonstrators have shifted their focus from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose June re-election they reject, to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whom they accuse of being a dictator. This charge amounts to a challenge to the legitimacy of the regime which bases its existence on his God-guided judgement and infallibility. By generating a mass movement against him, the oppo- sition undermines his authority with a widening circle of Iranians.
If protests continue to expand and multiply the opposition could call for the ousting of the regime, claiming that the Prophet Muhammad gave Islamic legitimacy to “people’s power” when he declared: “My community [Umma] shall not agree on an error.”
The government, still wary of tackling high-profile opposition figures, apparently rounded up the “usual suspects”, men detained last June when the protests began. Former foreign minister Ebrahim Yazdi, human rights activist Emad Baghi, Mir Hossein Mousavi’s chief adviser Ali Riza Beheshti and aides of former president Muhammad Khatami were said to be among those arrested.
