Britain's slaughter policy was "beginning to bite" and the number of foot-and-mouth cases could fall significantly by June, the British government's chief scientific adviser predicted yesterday.
As Prof David King offered his "cautiously optimistic" message, the outbreak passed the 1,000 cases mark. But last month's prediction that at this stage of the crisis the number of cases could double every nine days has not materialised.
Previous predictions that the disease would reach 4,000 cases in June were based on a rate of acceleration of between 60-65 new cases each day, but the current rate was closer to between 40-45 cases each day, Prof King said. However, if the number of new cases was to fall dramatically by June, Prof King warned the slaughter policy must continue and officials must achieve the 24-hour report-to-slaughter target on infected farms and 48 hours on neighbouring holdings.
Based on three scenarios compiled by scientists from London's Imperial College, Prof King said that if the slaughter of animals was delayed for several days, the number of cases could spiral to 420 a day. If animals on infected farms only were culled within 24 hours of reporting the disease the epidemic could reach 100 cases a day, but on current predictions the number would "get on the downward curve" later this month.
Careful not to raise expectations but clearly anticipating the outbreak would turn the corner soon, Downing Street said the slaughter policy was "starting to bite". Acting on Prof King's advice, vaccination will be held back while the slaughter policy shows signs of slowing down the spread of the disease, but officials are keen to stress that vaccination has not been ruled out entirely.
However, the Prime Minister's spokesman said it was not possible to guarantee that the 24-hour report-to-slaughter target would be reached soon - it was not being met in Cumbria, one of the worst-hit areas.
In Commons exchanges, the Prime Minister, Mr Blair, insisted the slaughter programme had been speeded up and in the two weeks between March 11th and March 25th the numbers culled had more than doubled, from 21,000 to 48,000.
The Conservative leader, Mr Hague, demanded the government step up the slaughter of animals, otherwise "we are not going to be able to stop the disease spreading, as it still is, to previously uninfected farms". Mr Blair said the slaughter and the disposal of carcasses was increasing "the entire time".