The expected British government statement about the events of Bloody Sunday may now be delayed until the New Year. And, contrary to earlier expectations, there is no apparent certainty in Dublin that the statement will result in either an apology or a fresh inquiry. The Irish Times has been told that the British statement - in response to a dossier of evidence compiled by the Irish Government - could be delayed until January. That might point to deliberate timing, designed to coincide with the 26th anniversary of the day on which 14 unarmed civilians were shot and killed by members of the Parachute Regiment, in highly controversial and still disputed circumstances.
However, there appears to be fresh uncertainty in British government circles about the nature of its response, and no guarantee that it will yield a formal apology or - more importantly from the perspective of the Irish Government and the families of those killed - a fresh inquiry.
The Irish case for a fresh inquiry has been pressed in recent ministerial discussions, and in direct talks between the Office of the Taoiseach and 10 Downing Street. However, sources say these have given no clear indication of the direction of the British discussion of the issue involving Number 10, the Northern Ireland Office and the Ministry of Defence in London.
The form and possible legal implications of any apology, and similarly of any inquiry which might challenge the findings of the Widgery Tribunal, are believed to be at the heart of complex and difficult discussions now involving the Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, as well as Dr Mo Mowlam, the Northern Secretary, and Mr George Robertson, the Secretary of State for Defence.
Just last month senior Labour sources were confident that Dr Mowlam was set to order a "paper inquiry" - rather than a quasijudicial investigation - which they believed would almost certainly result in a formal British apology. And Dr Mowlam confirmed her eagerness to respond to the Irish Government's body of evidence "sooner rather than later".
However, the issue is proving more complex and more contentious than she may have first imagined, with the Ministry of Defence thought to be resisting any response which might open the door to prosecutions or private actions by the families concerned.
Irish sources last night confirmed their view that such actions could obviously arise from any admission of "guilt" by the British authorities.
They also reaffirmed the Irish Government's view that the issue of an apology was of secondary importance, and would not be accepted by the families as a substitute for a comprehensive review of the evidence.
The indication of a further, possibly protracted delay follows last week's public expression of concern by the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Andrews. After last Wednesday's Anglo-Irish InterGovernmental Conference, Mr Andrews said he had conveyed his Government's concern at "the ongoing delay" and hoped London would urgently come to a conclusion on the matter.
The SDLP leader, Mr John Hume, may raise the issue directly with Mr Blair on Wednesday, when he leads an SDLP delegation to Downing Street for the party's second meeting with the British Prime Minister in as many weeks.
The meeting will be devoted primarily to developing British/ Irish proposals for a series of "managed bilaterals" in the Stormont talks process in the weeks preceding the formal review of progress in the talks due to begin on December 1st.