British economy grinds to unexpected halt

Britain's economy ground to a halt in the final quarter of 2001, the worst reading for nearly a decade, largely due to lower …

Britain's economy ground to a halt in the final quarter of 2001, the worst reading for nearly a decade, largely due to lower services and manufacturing output.

Releasing new figures for fourth-quarter gross domestic product data today, the Office for National Statistics revised down its quarterly growth estimate to zero from a previous figure of 0.2 per cent.

That was the worst since the second quarter of 1992 when the country was in the grip of its worst post-war recession.

That left output just 1.7 per cent higher than a year earlier, down from 1.9 per cent reported last month. That was the worst annual figure since the second quarter of 1999.

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The revision caught City pundits by surprise who had not been expecting any change from the first estimate. It may also dent confidence of a strong economy recovery this year and also expectations that interest rates are set to rise sharply from their current 38-year low of 4 per cent.

However, most economists are betting on a pick up in growth during the course of 2002 as the global economic outlook improves. Britain has already escaped relatively unscathed from the worst of the downturn made worse by the September 11th attacks on the United States.

Some economists, however, had predicted a month ago that the fourth-quarter figure would be zero and were surprised by the original estimate of 0.2 per cent.

Statisticians attributed the downward revision to growth to a lower estimate of the output of services. There were lower returns for computing and other business services and hotels and restaurants.

The revision was also partly due to lower manufacturing output, compared with the data available last month. Manufacturing output fell 5.6 per cent in the fourth quarter from the same period a year earlier, its biggest drop since the third quarter of 1991.

The main strength in the expenditure measure of GDP came from household spending. Within this, growth was strongest in durable goods. Private car registrations were up over 25 per cent from the same period a year earlier and there was also buoyant growth in household durables and retail sales.

However, there were declines in spending on energy and restaurants and hotels.