The prospects of the British-Irish proposals ending the political stalemate now hinge on whether the IRA will make a significant gesture on arms to persuade unionists to sign up to difficult proposals on policing and other issues.
The British and Irish governments were careful in their 10page document not to be prescriptive about IRA weapons but last night there was widespread political agreement with Mr David Trimble's line that without action on weapons, the initiative will fail.
Mr Trimble, in the face of strong criticism of the proposals from unionists inside and outside the UUP, provided comfort for the two governments by agreeing to "carefully consider" the document and to withhold judgment until Monday evening.
However, he insisted significant IRA movement on weapons was the bottom line for unionists. "In the absence of decommissioning, there will be no progress and consequently no Ulster Unionist will be able to offer himself for election as First Minister," he said. "The paper's other proposals will be irrelevant in the absence of decommissioning. The Ulster Unionist Party awaits the response of republicans."
The Assembly members must re-elect Mr Trimble as First Minister by August 12th or failing that the British government must decide whether to suspend the Assembly and Executive or call fresh Assembly elections.
While there has been much speculation about an IRA statement, British and Irish sources insisted they did not know what, if anything, might be forthcoming from that quarter.
There have been rumours the IRA might put a concrete cap on the two or three of its dumps viewed by the arms inspectors but again there is no confirmation of these reports.
The Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, said what the IRA did next was solely a matter for the IRA. It should be clearer tomorrow, however, whether Sinn Fein can acquiesce to the British-Irish proposals, which in turn should be an indicator whether the IRA will view them favourably.
The Sinn Fein ardchomhairle will discuss the proposals in Castlebellingham tomorrow. Mr Adams was not prepared to be definitive. "Sinn Fein is coming to this document critically but in a constructive frame of mind," he said.
While the package addresses some issues crucial to unionist demands, it appears primarily tilted to the concerns of nationalists and republicans - but in the firm expectation that there will be subsequent balancing action on IRA weapons.
The paper describes decommissioning as an "indispensable" part of the Belfast Agreement and without laying down preconditions adds that it must be resolved in a manner "acceptable to and verified" by Gen John De Chastelain's decommissioning body.
The document pledges police reform to bring the Police Act substantially in line with Patten. It promises an amnesty for paramilitaries on the run. It also sets out ambitious plans for the scaling down of the British army presence in Northern Ireland, but again on the basis of the paramilitary threat being reduced.
The parties have until Monday to give their verdict on the proposals. Dr John Reid, the Northern Secretary, is prepared to provide clarification but there can be no further negotiation of the document, said British and Irish sources.
