Brown fuels speculation of election call in days

BRITAIN: Gordon Brown was accused of abusing the constitutional process yesterday as he again fuelled speculation that he is…

BRITAIN:Gordon Brown was accused of abusing the constitutional process yesterday as he again fuelled speculation that he is preparing to call a general election next week.

The charge came from Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell as the government confirmed that two major reports - its Comprehensive Spending Review and the pre-Budget report - are being brought forward to Tuesday.

While Mr Brown is not expected to finalise his decision until tomorrow, bringing the reports forward to Tuesday would then allow him to formally ask Queen Elizabeth to dissolve parliament the same day - the last date on which he can call an election for November 1st.

Newspaper headlines reporting three polls showing the Conservatives narrowing Labour's lead reflected Mr Brown's sudden dilemma and the suspicion that he would shy away from the evidently increased gamble of an early poll.

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However, Labour insiders said the option remained open, insisting that they had always anticipated a bounce for David Cameron in the aftermath of the Conservative conference, while pointing to Mr Brown's strong advantage on all the key policy and personal quality issues.

Mr Brown will spend the weekend studying the detail of Labour's private polling in the vital marginal constituencies before making the lonely decision on whether to go to the country and seek a personal mandate after barely 100 days in Number 10.

Having allowed the cabinet young Turks and others to feed the election fever, it is accepted that Mr Brown will take a hit to his prestige if he decides not to call the election after all.

However, Labour insiders believe this would largely be of interest to "the chattering class" and soon forgotten by the public.

Against that risk, any uncertainty about the reliability of Labour's lead - just three points according to the Times, and four in Channel 4's poll - will have Mr Brown and his advisers weighing the danger of winning the election but with a reduced majority.

Leading commentators are agreed that - with no election required until 2010 - the only reason for an early contest is the belief that Mr Brown can in fact win by a bigger margin that Tony Blair in 2005.

While a majority of 40-50 might be sufficient to carry Labour through a full fourth term, the needless loss of any significant number of MPs in an early poll would almost certainly see Mr Brown's authority weakened from the outset.

One analyst, Prof Jonathan Tonge of Liverpool university, suggested Mr Brown had already missed his moment, arguing that he should have made his move during Labour's own conference and suggesting that Labour's lead could be "more fragile than you might think".

While the Tories again taunted Mr Brown not to "bottle it" and to "bring it on", Sir Menzies reflected impatience with Mr Brown's ongoing tease.

"He really has to come clean and tell parliament and the country what his intentions are," said Sir Menzies.

"What began as a tease of the opposition parties by the government has really turned into an abuse of the constitutional process, and it's high time the prime minister brought the uncertainty to an end."