The Fine Gael leader, Mr John Bruton, will be out and about in Dun Laoghaire today with thoughts of the next general election firmly in his mind. The announcement that the party's two sitting TDs - Mr Sean Barrett and Ms Monica Barnes - are to retire from political life has presented Fine Gael with a quandary in the five-seat constituency.
If Mr Bruton is to return as Taoiseach, he needs to ensure that Fine Gael does not surrender seats it already holds. The glory days of three Dun Laoghaire seats out of five, achieved in Dun Laoghaire in 1982, are now but a memory. However, Mr Bruton will be keen to ensure there is no repeat of the electoral disaster of 1992, when the party took only a single seat.
A selection convention will be held in the autumn, with Senator Liam Cosgrave seeking to fill one of the candidate positions. A TD for Dun Laoghaire from 1981 to 1987, he is a son of former Taoiseach Mr Liam Cosgrave and a grandson of William T. Cosgrave.
While Fine Gael can be assured of one seat in Dun Laoghaire, winning a second will depend on the strength of the other candidates chosen. Several local councillors, including Mr Eoin Costello and Mr Donal Marren, have been eyeing the position while a second member of the Cosgrave family, Ms Louise Cosgrave, may leave her South Dublin base to enter the fray. Next time out the name of Mr David Andrews will be missing from the ballot paper in Dun Laoghaire for the first time since 1963. Fianna Fail received its lowest ever first preference vote in Dun Laoghaire in 1997. However, excellent vote management delivered two seats with newcomer Ms Mary Hanafin joining Mr Andrews in Leinster House. The Andrews family tradition will be maintained with Mr Barry Andrews, a son of the former minister, seeking a nomination. A barrister by profession, he had a good start to his electoral career at the 1999 local elections, comfortably taking a seat in the Blackrock electoral area.
The newly appointed Minister of State, Ms Mary Hanafin, choose not to contest the local elections. Nevertheless, she is likely to be the Fianna Fail frontrunner and is considered by many as a probable poll-topper. The two-candidate strategy, which was successful in 1997, is expected to be repeated.
The voters in Dun Laoghaire have never been afraid of rejecting a politician, no matter how strong their reputation. So it was in 1997 when the outgoing minister for education, Ms Niamh Bhreathnach - elected on the first count in 1992 - ignominiously tasted defeat. Her long road back to national politics began with election to the Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown council in 1999.
The merger of Labour and Democratic Left means Ms Breathnach will be running on a joint ticket with sitting TD Mr Eamonn Gilmore. Mr Gilmore will go into the next general election as the longest-sitting TD in the constituency, having first won a seat in 1989 which he has held ever since. The Progressive Democrats have a chequered history in Dun Laoghaire - winning a seat in 1987 and 1992 but losing out in 1989 and 1997. Former TD Ms Helen Keogh - now a senator - will be seeking to return to Leinster House.
However, speculation continues about the intentions of Ms Fiona O'Malley - a daughter of Mr Des O'Malley. She won a council seat on the Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown at last year's local elections but her electoral area is in Dublin South.
Regardless of what decision the PDs take, voters in Dun Laoghaire will at the next general election be asked at the very least to determine on the continuation of three political dynasties - the Andrews, the Cosgraves and the Hanafins.