There has been an amazing turnaround in the presidential election campaign which virtually no one saw coming.
Just four weeks ago George Bush had a double-digit lead in most opinion polls, some putting him as high as 18 points ahead of Al Gore. Bush had been ahead of Gore in most polls since the beginning of the year so he seemed to be moving steadily into an impregnable lead.
Gore according to the polls had not even got the traditional Democratic base among low- and middle-income voters locked up and he was attracting only a minority of the "independent" voters, who are said to decide modern presidential elections.
That was the situation after the Republican convention in Philadelphia, where Bush performed better than expected in his well-crafted acceptance speech criticising Gore for timidity and holding him up to ridicule for exaggerated claims such as "inventing the Internet".
With hindsight it can now be seen that the Bush campaign became overconfident, believing that it had Gore on the run. Bush took a holiday while the Democrats held their convention in Los Angeles and waited for Labour Day on September 4th, which is regarded as the unofficial start of the last lap of the campaign.
But as Bush savoured the glowing post-convention reviews, Gore suddenly made the headlines with his choice of Senator Joseph Lieberman as his running mate. The media attention switched to what was seen as a daring move by Gore to pick the first Jewish-American on a presidential ticket and a practising Orthodox Jew at that.
Lieberman with his frequent invocations of God and the Bible and his almost boyish delight at being on the ticket made Bush's choice of the dour Dick Cheney, a former secretary of defence, look uninspiring.
The Democratic convention, however, was seen as a tough challenge for Gore. President Clinton got the limelight for the early days as he made a farewell address that was going to be a hard act for Gore to follow.
The pundits were not impressed by the Gore speech with its "populist" pitch to "working families", preceded by his wife Tipper's soft-focus recall of high moments of their courtship and 30-year marriage. As if this was not enough sentimentality, Gore grabbed Tipper after the speech in a passionate embrace that was almost more talked about than the speech.
Commentators claimed that Gore had missed his chance to reach out to the suburban middle-class swing voters that won two elections for Clinton. Instead he was making his pitch to the traditional Democratic base of bluecollar workers and union members.
Gore and Lieberman took off immediately on a four-day riverboat voyage down the Mississippi campaigning in states he would have to win if he is to become president. It was too gimmicky, sniffed the critics, who were still dissecting the kiss.
On Labour Day came another gimmick as Gore and Lieberman campaigned non-stop for 24 hours to meet workers coming off shifts in the industrial belt. They also flew to Florida to woo retired people with their plan to improve medical benefits.
But the gimmicks were working and the polls showed the Bush lead evaporating. The view of Gore as stiff and untrustworthy was being transformed into approval. The half-hearted Democrats no longer dallied with the idea of voting for the "compassionate conservatism" of George Bush and came home to their party.
The biggest turn-around came with women, who had been flirting with the Bush charm but now flocked to Gore, whose lead with female voters jumped to 21 points where before they favoured Bush by almost 10 points. Was it the kiss? Or was it Gore's hammering away at issues like prescription drug insurance, education and tax cuts for "middle-class families"; a significant reaching beyond the "working families" he vowed to defend in his convention speech?
The frenzied pace of the Gore-Lieberman campaign made Bush and Cheney look too laid-back. They seemed to have no particular theme to their campaigning and packed fewer events into their days.
Bush spent precious time arguing about the format for the election debates and giving the impression he was afraid of Gore. As Bush sank in the polls and Gore rose, the media coverage became a nightmare for Bush and Cheney.
Their plans for saving Medicare and across-the-board tax cuts were lost in the media splurge on Bush's reference to a reporter as "a major league asshole" and the Republican TV ad with its subliminal "rats".
Cheney's lacklustre performance on the campaign trail was being dissected as well as the generous stock-options and resignation package from his oil services company.
For the first time since Bush became a candidate, Gore is ahead in the polls outside the margin of error and widening his lead in the daily tracking polls. Republican supporters, who have contributed $100 million to elect Bush and keep Gore out of the White House, are in shock. The Bush campaign is shaken, while insisting it always knew it would be "a tight race".
George Bush, who used to boast about avoiding negative attacks and bringing back civility to Washington politics, is now hammering away at Gore as a man who cannot be trusted and who raised money illegally in the last election.
Bush has agreed belatedly to three debates with Gore next month. They may be his last chance to get back on top.