United States: Stephanie Kirchgaessner in Washington asks how a Democrat victory in Congress would be likely to affect US business.
Most Washington business lobbyists agree that the impact of today's mid-term election will depend on the margin of victory.
If Democrats win an overwhelming majority in the House of Representatives, it will be seen as an endorsement of a left-leaning agenda espoused by Nancy Pelosi, the California congresswoman and would-be speaker.
But a narrower victory and failure to capture the Senate would lend support to a more moderate agenda supported by the so-called Blue Dogs, centrist to conservative Democrats who will not antagonise business constituents.
One financial services lobbyist said: "It is going to be virtually impossible to get anything truly harmful to business passed. So either we are faced with a stalemate or very sensible grand coalition legislation."
A Democrat victory would have an impact on some specific industries and policy issues.
On trade, Democratic victory raises significant questions about the likelihood that Congress would renew president George W. Bush's trade promotion authority (TPA), which expires next summer.
Some trade deals could still be approved by Congress, but Democrats would be likely to force the administration to negotiate tougher environmental and labour standards.
Labour unions are likely to demand that countries negotiating free trade agreements abide by international labour standards.
Democrats are likely to renew the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, post-September 11th legislation that provides a backstop to the insurance industry in the event of a catastrophic terrorist attack.
With enhanced oversight and subpoena power, some Democratic leaders are expected to pursue investigations of key industries and issues, including executive compensation, oil and gas companies, government contractors such as Halliburton, defence manufacturers, pharmaceutical companies and hedge funds.
Democrats are expected to promote heavily renewable energy sources and will pay for such measures by cutting tax subsidies to oil and gas groups.
Some Democrats, such as Ms Pelosi, would also support the instalment of new fuel-efficiency standards - but such a measure would likely not gain unanimous support.
Democrats would not support the opening of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and other areas to oil and gas exploration.
They would support increasing the federal minimum wage, which has been stuck at $5.15 (€4.05) an hour for the past 10 years.
- (Financial Times service)
Breaking news and results from the US mid-term congressional elections will be available from the Irish Times website, www.ireland.com, from early tomorrow morning.