TAOISEACH BRIAN Cowen is unlikely to announce his Cabinet reshuffle today and may hold back until the end of the month, it has been learned.
Senior political sources said the Taoiseach was firmly keeping his own counsel as regards the future composition of his Cabinet.
Although the possibility that he may announce his new appointments tomorrow has not been totally ruled out, senior sources believe it is more likely he will wait until the week leading up to the Green Party convention in Waterford on March 26th-28th.
Sources also suggested it would be unwise in terms of public perception to move in advance of St Patrick’s Day because the first act of the new ministers would be to leave the country for the international events associated with the festival.
There is a general belief in political circles that Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism Martin Cullen will step down for health reasons, leaving the Taoiseach with a second vacancy to fill in addition to replacing Willie O’Dea as Minister for Defence.
In the event of Mr Cullen’s withdrawal from Cabinet, the Government would have no senior minister in a wide swathe of northern Munster, as well as a large portion of southern Leinster.
Fianna Fáil is undertaking a review of its organisation in the cities, including Limerick and Waterford. With Mr O’Dea’s resignation, Limerick has lost its place at Cabinet and the same would be true of Waterford in the event of Mr Cullen’s departure from office.
Clare-based Minister of State for Agriculture Tony Killeen is seen as a strong contender to replace Mr O’Dea, although others are also being linked with the job. They include Limerick-based Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Peter Power and Tipperary South-based Minister of State for Finance Martin Mansergh.
Senior sources suggest that the Department of Arts, Sport and Tourism may be broken up with Arts and Sport becoming part of a wider brief for Minister for Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs Éamon Ó Cuív, whose own place at the table is considered on balance to be safe.
According to this scenario, Tánaiste Mary Coughlan would become Minister for Trade and Tourism, with the other elements of her job being hived-off into a new department.
Names mentioned in connection with this new position include Government Chief Whip Pat Carey and, once again, Mr Killeen, in which case Mr Carey would be expected to go to the Department of Defence.
Senior sources consider it highly unlikely that Ms Coughlan herself would be dropped from Cabinet. Apart from being a loyal colleague of the Taoiseach, she also tends to deflect criticism from Mr Cowen. A demotion for the Tánaiste would hurt Fianna Fáil’s chances in the Donegal South West byelection at the end of this year to replace MEP Pat the Cope Gallagher.
There are also suggestions that the equality brief may be taken away from the Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform and allocated to a new “super-junior” minister of state for public-sector reform.