ANALYSIS The proposed revival of the Conservative and Unionist Party could leave DUP leader Peter Robinson smarting, writes Frank MillarLondon Editor
DAVID CAMERON has sprung a surprise and in the context of Northern Ireland shown himself to be a quite serious player.
The DUP will inevitably snort at the proposed amalgamation of the Conservative and Ulster Unionist parties and their promise of "a new political force" offering voters in Northern Ireland the opportunity to join the "mainstream" and participate in politics at a national level.
With the DUP having nine Westminster MPs and Sir Reg Empey's one-seat Ulster Unionists in seemingly terminal decline, many outsiders too will wonder if Cameron hasn't backed the wrong horse.
Yet there can be little doubt the new DUP leadership will be smarting at this implied rebuke administered by a Conservative leader currently some 20 points ahead in the opinion polls and now generally regarded as the next British prime minister.
Indeed, if some Tory sources are to be believed, the added salt in the DUP wound will be that party leader Peter Robinson had himself appeared interested in the possibility of a relationship with Cameron's Conservatives. Moreover, Cameron's decision warrants serious assessment precisely because it does not appear tailored to his most obvious potential interests.
Alliance Party leader David Ford told BBC Radio 4's World at One programme yesterday that he was at a loss to see what was in this proposed relationship for the Conservative leader.
And "what's in it for us?" was certainly the question uppermost in the minds of many Tory MPs back in 2002 when the then Conservative and Ulster Unionist leaders Iain Duncan Smith and David (Lord) Trimble explored the same terrain. Until very recently the belief persisted among Tory insiders - including even some sympathetic to the notion of restoring the historic link between the parties - that Cameron would want to run a mile should the Ulster Unionists ever get down on bended knee and propose. The reasoning was obvious: a tight general election outcome could leave Cameron in need of unionist votes - and it would likely be the DUP, not the UUP, who could deliver.
So what changed? Cameron clearly wants to broaden his appeal and show that he is not simply the leader of an "English" party. Assuming the "new" Conservative and Unionist Party materialises at the end of the joint working group's deliberations, Cameron would hope to dispel SNP leader Alex Salmond's fond hope that the election of a Conservative government in London would boost support for Scottish independence.
After years of incoherence over Scottish policy, a Conservative Party sitting in government with Sinn Féin in Belfast - which it would be - could with some credibility claim to be both unionist and devolutionist.
As far as Northern Ireland is concerned, however, it would seem Cameron has had a surprisingly long-term interest in the possibility of "normalising" its politics.
Jonathan Caine, a former special adviser to secretaries of state Peter (Lord) Brooke and Patrick (Lord) Mayhew, recalls discussing the issues and the difficulties with the young Cameron when they worked together in the Conservative Research Department in the early 1990s. "It was hard to imagine such progress back then," says Caine: "But he has always had a genuine desire to see Northern Ireland politics normalised." Lord Trimble and influential shadow Northern Ireland secretary Owen Paterson are among those who have been working behind the scenes to encourage Cameron's belief that - courtesy of the Belfast and St Andrews Agreements - the opportunity exists now to move beyond "the old issues".
Whether it works in those terms will depend very much on the Ulster Unionists. For Ford correctly observed that success will require "a major change of heart" on their part. If the new party is not merely to prove a retirement home for Ulster Unionists resisting absorption by the DUP, then they will have to embrace the Cameron Conservative brand with its emphasis on equality, liberty, inclusivity and the celebration of diversity. Like Cameron's Conservatives, the Ulster Unionists will have to reinvent themselves.
Sir Reg Empey, too, has sprung a surprise, shown courage, and offered his ailing party the prospect of new life. If they take it, that can surely only be a good thing. Extending Northern Ireland's democratic base and widening its political life threatens no one.