Canada: Canada's minority Liberal government is heading for defeat at the hands of the Conservatives after more than 11 years in power, a dramatic new poll predicted yesterday.
The EKOS poll, commissioned by the Toronto Star, was taken after an advertising executive raised the stakes in a scandal about misuse of government cash by testifying he had paid large kickbacks to the Liberals in French-speaking Quebec.
The poll showed support for the Conservatives rose seven points to 36.2 per cent, while the Liberals fell by nine points to just 25 per cent.
But both parties played down the chances of a snap election, saying they felt Canadians wanted to hear more information from a public inquiry into the scandal. It was the lowest showing for the Liberals since they took office in 1993. Public support for the party dipped as low as 29 per cent before last June's election, but it recovered to poll 36.7 per cent on election day.
The Toronto Star said the figures suggested a late June election, and EKOS predicted that Conservative leader Stephen Harper would form a minority government.
"There is little immediately apparent in the political environment . . . to suggest a way back for the Liberals," the paper quoted EKOS as saying.
Canadian prime minister Paul Martin sought to distance himself from the scandal, which occurred under his predecessor, Jean Chrétien. "I was personally offended by what I heard . . . this is not the way I would do politics," he told reporters.
The Liberals lost their parliamentary majority in the June 2004 election amid public anger over the scandal.
A Conservative spokesman said the party would not trigger an election immediately. "We need some time to accurately and carefully assess public opinion and whether they feel like it's time to deal with this government."
The Liberals currently have 133 of the House of Commons's 308 seats; the Conservatives 99; Bloc Québécois 54; the New Democratic Party 19. There are two independents and one vacancy.
Mr Harper wants to lower taxes, limit government spending, boost the military, improve ties with the United States, get tough on crime, and end gay marriage.
The Liberals say they will invest billions of dollars in healthcare and a proposed new national day-care network.
Canadian election campaigns must last at least 36 days, leaving the possibility of a vote of no-confidence sometime in May and an election in mid- to late June. - (Reuters)