Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper could be tempted to call an early federal election following dramatic gains by a right-wing party in the key French-speaking province of Quebec.
Mr Harper, whose Conservatives won power in January 2006 largely due to an unexpected breakthrough in Quebec, only controls 125 of the 308 seats in Canada's House of Commons and needs the support of opposition parties to govern.
Speculation about an early federal vote increased after the right-wing Action democratique du Quebec party did much better than expected in Quebec's provincial election yesterday. To a large extent the ADQ appeals to the same kinds of voters that Harper does.
Despite recent polls showing the Conservatives are well ahead of the official opposition Liberals and might win a majority if an election were held now, Mr Harper has consistently says he plans to govern until 2009.
"We want to stay in government. There is no reason why we would want to leave right now. We're having a good time," an aide told Reuters. "This (speculation) is purely driven by polls and other people, not us."
Others are less circumspect, saying rising support for the ADQ in Quebec and signs of disarray among the federal Liberals provide an irresistible opportunity for Mr Harper.
"I'm convinced we'll go (to the polls) this spring. We've been sitting here looking for some momentum and this could be it," one senior party official said.
"The fact the ADQ got twice the votes we'd expected shows people in Quebec are ready to vote Conservative," the official said. Mr Harper has 10 of Quebec's 75 federal seats.
The other good news for Mr Harper - a strong defender of Canada's federal system - is that the separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) was knocked into third place behind the ADQ and the province's Liberal government.
The PQ had promised to hold another referendum on independence for Quebec if it won. Similar province-wide votes failed in 1980 and 1995.
"For the rest of Canada, there is no doubt that PQ's poor score is a pretty good news, and Harper will benefit from that," said Jean-Herman Guay, a political science professor at Sherbrooke University in Quebec.