Cardinal pointers

It may well be that when the 115 Cardinal Electors file into the Sistine Chapel next Monday afternoon to elect a successor to…

It may well be that when the 115 Cardinal Electors file into the Sistine Chapel next Monday afternoon to elect a successor to John Paul II, they will have a clear idea as to the identity of the man they want as the 265th Bishop of Rome, Successor of the Prince of the Apostles, Supreme Pontiff of the Universal Church, Patriarch of the West, writes Paddy Agnew in Rome.

That may well be, but, as and of this weekend, there are no signs of such unity of intent. At press time, no one, Cardinals included, can say with any certainty whether the next Pope will be European or Asian, Italian or Latin American, young (relatively) or old. As the curtain prepares to go up on the election, it is even unclear as to whether this will be a long or a short conclave.

Outsiders unfamiliar with the Catholic Church may marvel at such apparent eve-of-conclave uncertainty. Given that the ailing John Paul II went through an extensive, "end of pontificate" phase, surely the Princes of the Church have had plenty of time to get their thoughts in order re his successor? After all, the death of the much loved John Paul II was anything other than a surprise.

Yet, as one Vatican insider put it this week, while the Pope is still alive, the Cardinals find themselves spiritually and psychologically blocked from such speculation. Put it another way, in and around the Congregation of Cardinals this week, a number of Cardinals have been quietly saying: "He was a great pope and this was a momentous pontificate, but..." Until the Pope dies, Cardinals simply do not go down the "but" road, outlining to one another their perceived shortcomings of the pontiff. This is not just a matter of diplomatic nicety but also based both on the priestly vow of obedience and on the affection/admiration that many Cardinals may feel for the man who gave them their red hat. (After all, John Paul II nominated 113 of the 115 - German Joseph Ratzinger and William Baum of the US are the exceptions).

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Now that John Paul II is dead and they must find a successor, the brakes are off. Not just in the daily "Congregations of Cardinals" in the Synod Hall but also informally over a cup of coffee or a plate of pasta, ideas have been exchanged, soundings taken and gently, gently, candidacies floated throughout the last week.

Everything that a Cardinal said in the Congregations will have been listened to attentively and analysed carefully. It is important to remember that this week was one of "getting to know you" for many Cardinals for whom as many as 60 or 70 of their fellow Cardinals were complete strangers.

To a large extent, there will be widespread agreement among the Cardinals as to what are the outstanding issues currently facing the church - Inter-Religious dialogue, especially with regard to Islam; Globalisation or the growing North-South gap; Collegiality, or tensions between the local churches and the Holy See Curia; Sexual Mores and Bio-Medical Research; the role of women and the laity in general; the need for a new Evangelisation in Europe. There will, however, be plenty of disagreement on how to confront those issues.

What seems obvious to outsiders may not be quite so obvious to the Cardinals. For example, whilst the secular world can easily identify relations with Islam as a priority question for the Church, those same secular commentators probably fail to understand that, for the Cardinals, the crisis of faith and drop in vocations currently experienced throughout Europe may be an even more urgent matter.

Those not familiar with the Church may also be tempted to imagine that, with the election of a new Pope, fundamental tenets of Catholic teaching are suddenly up for grabs. For example, in the wake of the clerical sex-abuse scandals that have rocked the Church in Ireland, the USA and elsewhere, could the new man review teaching on issues such as the celibacy of the priesthood and women priests, not to mention contraception, homosexuality, use of condoms etc? "The Church's teachings on sexual mores are not going to change, you need to get that straight", Cardinal Francis George of Chicago answered loud and clear last week.

Even a Cardinal often portrayed as a "leading liberal" such as Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras went on the record to defend the Church's teachings on sexual mores and the priesthood right at the very height of the Boston-oriented, US clerical abuse scandal three years ago.

If the Cardinals are agreed on sexual mores, there are plenty of other divisive issues which will prove fundamental to the choice of the next Pope.

Given the emphasis many Cardinals will put on a new evangelisation in Europe, it could be felt that the choice should fall on a European. Given the resentment many local Church Cardinals feel towards the high-handed, sometimes arrogant attitude of the Curia in Rome, it is unlikely that the next Pope will come from the Curia.

Given the length and momentous nature of John Paul II's pontificate, there will be many urging against again choosing a 58-year-old such as Karol Wojtyla in 1978. On the other hand, given the extreme difficulties of John Paul II's final years as an ailing invalid, many Cardinals will feel it essential not to nominate someone over the age of 75.

For outsiders, it is tempting to imagine that the Cardinals might want to send a strong message through the election of a non-European candidate, from Africa, Asia or Latin America. Vatican insiders, however, counsel against such geopolitical analysis arguing that the Cardinals will be looking at the particular skills and qualities of the leading candidates, not their place of birth.

That may well be so, but it is hard to imagine that the Cardinals will not have their eye on history. If a Polish Pope proved to be a protagonist in the downfall of East-Bloc communism, could not a Latin-American Pope prove to be a vital and authoritative voice in the globalisation debate? Another area of debate will concern the immediate heritage of John Paul II's pontificate. The Curia faction may well campaign for a less media friendly Pope, one less given to travel and less enamoured of show piece occasions such as the Day of Prayer in Assissi, visits to mosques and synagogues and the recital of a "Mea Culpa" (John Paul II himself had to lobby hard within his own Curia to quell the mutterings about the "Mea Culpa" of Jubilee Year, 2000).

Many of the non-Curia Cardinals, in contrast, will argue that John Paul II's travelling, his ability to harness the media for his own ends and his willingness to reach out, if only symbolically, to the other religions of the planet stand out as amongst the most lasting achievements of his pontificate.

So then, we have two apparently contrasting camps. On the one hand, there are those who would opt for a transitional figure, preferably from the Curia, European or Italian and over 75. On the other hand, there are those looking for a non-Curia Pope, European or Latin American and under 75.

Both camps may start off with stalking horse candidates - Cardinal Ratzinger for the Curia camp and Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini for the non-Curia camp - neither of whom stands any real chance of being elected.

Those candidacies will identify the strength of either side, after which they will be dropped in favour of more realistic options.

At this point, many of those candidates touted in the world's media in recent days may bite the dust - Nigerian Francis Arinze because of a lack of executive skills; Honduran Maradiago because he is too "leftist" on social justice questions; Italian Tettamanzi because of a lack of gravitas; Sodano, Ruini and Re because they are at the heart of the Curia camp. Which could leave us with a shortlist of alternative candidates, men who could appeal to all sides of the conclave such as the Argentine Jose Mario Bergoglio, Mexican Norberto Rivera Carrera, Portugal's Jose da Cruz Policarpo, Belgian Godfried Daneels, Indian Ivan Dias, Brazilian Claudio Hummes, Canadian Marc Quellet and Austrian Christoph Schoenborn.

Then, too, given that the final arbitrator in all of this is the Holy Spirit, the choice may fall on someone thus far totally ignored. As in 1978, God may again opt to work in mysterious ways.