ITALY: With four days to go to the conclave that will elect the successor to Pope John Paul II, battle lines are being drawn, according to a variety of Italian media sources.
Two camps would seem to be emerging from this week's closed-door meetings of the cardinals. On the one hand, there are those cardinals, many of them from the curia and linked to lay movements such as Opus Dei and Communione e Liberazione, who tend to favour a transitional figure.
On the other hand, there are those, many of them cardinals from the developing world, who feel that the momentous pontificate of John Paul II should be followed by a bold choice. If a Polish pope could prove to be a protagonist in the downfall of communism, a non-European pope might be a vital and authoritative voice in the globalisation debate.
Dividing the two camps, too, is the question of collegiality or the extent to which decision-making and power became centralised in the Roman curia during John Paul II's pontificate. Within these broad generalisations, there are a myriad of subtle distinctions but, for the time being, it would seem that both camps will field stalking horses to test the conclave mood at the first vote on Monday evening.
It may be that the first round of voting will feature a symbolic stand-off between two ageing figures of radically different church trends - German Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, and the former Archbishop of Milan, Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini, both 78.
The Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera reported yesterday that Cardinal Martini's candidacy has been floated in order to block Cardinal Ratzinger. While it is unlikely that either candidate could succeed, they would at least test the electoral waters.
In such a context, Italian media inevitably give much space to the chances of Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi of Milan, seen by some as compromise choice. His lack of linguistic skills, affinity with Opus Dei and lack of international experience, however, could all count against him.
At that point, the cardinals might then move on to names with broader appeal such as Argentine José Mario Bergoglio, Mexican Norberto Rivera Carrera, Portugal's Jose da Cruz Policarpo, Belgian Godfried Daneels, Indian Ivan Dias, Brazilian Claudio Hummes, Canadian Marc Quellet and Austrian Christoph Schoenborn.