Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende and his Christian Democrats look set to win a parliamentary election next week, but he could struggle to put together a coalition government.
After trailing the Labour opposition in opinion polls for months, the Christian Democrats have surprisingly pulled ahead in recent weeks, helped by an economic rebound.
Few would have bet on Balkenende, 50, securing a third election victory when he called an early election last June after the small D66 party pulled out of his coalition in a row over immigration policy.
But Balkenende is cautioning against over-confidence. His main coalition partners since 2003, the VVD liberals, have fared less well in the polls. "Polls are no guarantee for success," he told a party rally on Tuesday evening, news agency ANP reported.
A large part of the Dutch electorate is undecided. "Only about 25 percent of electors hold a more-or-less stable party identification, 75 percent are floating voters, frequently until the last minute," said Rinus van Schendelen, political science professor at Rotterdam's Erasmus University. Parliament has 150 seats. A poll published by Interview NSS today put Balkenende's CDA on 44 seats to 32 for Labour, under Wouter Bos, but showed neither could be sure of a majority with their preferred coalition partners.
The CDA won 44 seats in the 2003 election, to 42 for Labour. The latest poll also showed that the Socialist Party, led by charismatic Jan Marijnissen, had increased its gains and is seen taking 29 seats, just behind Labour.
A televised debate this evening between the major candidates saw Marijnissen emerge as surprise winner, according to an audience survey, with Bos second and Balkenende third.