The chances of negotiators reaching agreement on a new world trade deal at continuing talks today in Geneva have been put at no more than ’50:50’ by the European Commission Director General for Trade.
Irish-born David O’Sullivan, who is at the talks, said he believed there were many gains for Ireland in the current proposals, particularly in the industrial and services sector.
He also said he did not believe the plan threatens Irish agriculture in the way that farmers here claim.
Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Mr O'Sullivan said: "It's true that in any trade deal some people see specific losses, whereas the gains are spread across the economy as a whole."
“I certainly think that we would have huge gains in the industrial sectors [with] tariffs in the OECD countries being halved, which is where we have most of our trade.”
Mr O’Sullivan said tariffs in China would be “significantly reduced” and that low tariffs in India would be “locked in” under the proposed trade deal.
“It is quite significant in terms of the kind of international trading environment we want to have in the 21st century.”
Noting that the agriculture sector is no longer the main employer in Ireland, Mr O’Sullivan said: “We are sensitive to the concerns of the farmers and we believe that we have negotiated a deal which does actually go a long way to protecting European agriculture.”
Asked whether he believed the farmers’ lobbying strength was out of proportion to their true weight in the economy, he said they were “very well organised and that’s to their credit”.
“They lobby well, which they are entitled to do. I think it is in the end up to the political system to make the kind of choices as between the conflicting interests of different sectors and I think that’s a decision the Irish Government has to make about looking at this deal in the round as to where the best interests of the country lie. I certainly think there are many positive elements in this deal for other sectors in the country, both in the industrial sector and the services sector.”
The Irish Farmers’ Association (IFA) has insisted that the Government must veto tariff concessions offered by EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson, claiming they are a “sell-out” of the Irish beef industry to Brazil and the US.
On the chances of reaching a deal today, Mr O’Sullivan said he was not prepared to put them at any more than 50:50.
“We will resume again at midday here and frankly I think it could be over by the afternoon, or we could go through the night and come out red-eyed and tired with a deal early tomorrow morning. Beyond saying it’s about 50:50 I wouldn’t like to make a prediction.”
Ministers from more than 30 countries are at the talks in the so-called Doha round of the World Trade Organisation talks in Geneva.
Major disagreements emerged in late-night talks on Wednesday over a so-called anti-concentration clause, which is meant to prevent states from shielding large parts of their industry from foreign imports.