Seoul likely to attempt diplomatic balancing act to deter, but not provoke, Pyongyang, writes DAVID MCNEILL
IN THE heart of the Korean capital Seoul, close to the City Hall, the authorities have erected a memorial to the 46 sailors killed in what now appears to have been an attack by its prickly northern neighbour.
Posted underneath photos of the sailors, who often clutch children or other family members, are hundreds of emotional messages from mourners that occasionally stray into angry calls for revenge.
Sabre rattling and florid rhetoric has long been part of the political landscape on the Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang once famously threatened to turn the South’s capital into a “sea of fire” if attacked.
Both sides are still technically in a state of war and retain huge conventional armies that face each other across one of the world’s most heavily fortified borders.
Just over a decade ago, Kim Dae Jung, then the South’s president attempted to turn down the heat from this potential bonfire by creating the so-called Sunshine Policy of rapprochement with Pyongyang.
Critics, including former US president George W Bush, say that policy rewarded North Korea for bad behaviour and turned a blind eye to its attempt to build a nuclear bomb.
North Korea says it had no intention of building a nuke until nudged into doing for fear of a US attack, following President Bush’s famous declaration that it was part of an “Axis of Evil”. Either way, current president Lee Myung-bak dumped the Sunshine Policy in favour of a tougher line after his election in 2008. Both sides are now living with the consequences of that decision.
The once bourgeoning trade links are being scaled back, sanctions against the North have been stepped up and tensions have ratcheted back to levels not seen since the 1990s.
Given his hawkish stripes, President Lee is now under a lot of domestic pressure to come up with a credible retaliation for the March 26th attack. But the chances of a military option are extremely slim, say most observers.
“South Korea’s choices are limited,” says Youngkwan Yoon, professor of international relations at Seoul National University. “It has everything to lose by going to war, and very little to gain.” For that reason, Seoul is likely to attempt a tricky diplomatic balancing act that deters but doesn’t provoke Pyongyang. South Korean and US officials were already promising last night to seek additional UN sanctions, among other possible international responses.
The diplomatic tug of war will likely drag in North Korea’s key supporter, China, which would prefer to stay out of the spotlight and focus on its conversion to economic superpower.
China promoted South Korea to the status of “strategic partner” in 2008 and is moving economically closer to trading partners Japan and the US. But it remains stubbornly wedded to Pyongyang, much to the anger of the South Korean press.
"How would Beijing react if one of its own navy ships had been attacked and a country that is supposed to be a "strategic partner" simply kept trotting out some noncommittal mantra?" editorialised the mass daily Chosun Ilbonewspaper this week.
There is fresh evidence, however, that China is growing weary of its reclusive and prickly ally. An article in the current edition of the Global Times, which is affiliated with the official Communist mouthpiece the People's Daily, says North Korea has repeatedly created diplomatic headaches for China and urges a rethink of the relationship.
China, like everyone else will be hoping for deep breaths all round once the fallout from yesterday’s report settles down. But like all heightened states of tension, the dispute always carries the threat of provocations that could spill over into outright conflict.