America Denis StauntonWhen Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern announced earlier this month that he was seeking a new immigration deal with the United States, he said little about the details, except to suggest that the new arrangement should be reciprocal and could be linked to the political settlement in the North.
The shape of a possible deal has become clearer since Mr Ahern's visit, however, and Irish officials are lobbying hard on Capitol Hill and with the Bush administration to have a plan in place in time for a US investment conference in the North planned for next May.
Meanwhile, the Irish Lobby for Immigration Reform, which campaigns on behalf of undocumented Irish immigrants in the US, has retained the services of former congressman Bruce Morrison, who gave his name to a successful visa scheme in 1990.
After the collapse of comprehensive immigration reform earlier this year, the Government has shifted its focus towards a bilateral agreement that could see a new, renewable non-immigrant visa that would make it easier for Irish citizens to work in the US. In return, the Government would allow more Americans to work in Ireland and would commit itself to a "culture of compliance", working more closely with the US to discourage visa violations and to facilitate repatriation of Irish immigrants who overstay their visas.
The new visa would be linked to jobs rather than skills, so applicants would have to show that they have an offer of employment in the US rather than demonstrating educational achievement.
The shift to a non-immigrant visa is significant because the state department and the department of homeland security have enormous leeway in granting waivers for non-immigrant visas. This means that, if the Bush administration agrees to the new deal, homeland security could waive the penalties usually imposed on immigrants who overstay their visas, allowing the undocumented Irish now in the US to benefit from the scheme.
A recent bilateral deal with Australia showed that the administration could agree a new visa regime with Ireland without consulting Congress. In practice, however, a special deal for Ireland may be politically impossible without congressional support.
The failure of comprehensive immigration legislation was such a blow to its supporters in Congress that many are wary of any new immigration Bills. During the next few weeks, however, Congress will consider two measures whose fate could determine the chances of an Irish deal winning support.
The first is the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors Act, known as the Dream Act, which would create a citizenship path for certain illegal immigrants who were brought to the US by their parents. The Bill is designed to help tens of thousands who came to the US as children and are now unable to go to college or to work legitimately because of their illegal immigrant status.
The second measure would create a guest worker programme for 1.5 million agricultural workers, mostly in the southern border states.
Some congressman may be reluctant to carve out a special deal for a group of mostly white European immigrants, so any new legislation could include at least one other nationality. Morrison points out that although Irish-Americans took the lead in lobbying for immigration reform in the 1980s and 1990s, Morrison and Donnelly visas actually went to citizens of 35 countries.
Expanding the deal to include other countries could undermine the Government's argument that the legacy of the Troubles makes Ireland a unique case. The Government claims that many undocumented Irish now in the US were victims of high unemployment caused by the Troubles, even if all are not from the North and the border counties.
US special envoy to the North Paula Dobriansky has won praise from all sides for the energy she has brought to the task of encouraging economic regeneration there. The Government's task in the next few months is to persuade Dobriansky, the Bush administration and a majority in Congress that the US can help the fledgling political structures in the North and boost the economic relationship between the US and Ireland by striking a new deal on immigration.