VENEZUELA: Hugo Chávez is disliked by many businessmen and church leaders, but his 'limp-wristed' opposition is struggling to gain support, writes Hugh O'Shaughnessy in Caracas.
President Hugo Chávez is persona non grata to many of Venezuela's businessmen and they have tried to drive him from office. The old generation of politicians will not forgive him for breaking the comfortable mould in which the country was run and they fear his ideas of "21st century socialism". Many senior figures in the Catholic Church do not like him. But as far as the ordinary voters are concerned, six out of 10 think he is a star.
In a continent where politics are seen not to have much relevance to the citizen's daily life, Chávez's stock is high. He has committed himself to improving the lot of that half of the population who live in poverty, and after six years in power these people are beginning to notice tiny but perceptible improvements in their conditions.
Latinbarómetro, a public opinion organisation, gave Venezuela top marks. It found it was the Latin American country where "the fewest people believe that the country is being governed for the few and where the most believe that it is governed for the good of the people".
The former parachute colonel, who won office in fair elections in 1999 and has revalidated his authority in several subsequent polls, has not lost his popularity. Indeed he is seen as likely to win another six-year term.
His domestic opposition is divided, limp-wristed and tainted with the charge of being anti-patriotic for its acceptance of political funds from the US government, whose attacks on Chávez are constant. According to US freedom of information documents, Washington has been providing the Venezuelan opposition with at least $5.8 million a year through three organisations.
Nor has the opposition recovered in public estimation from the folly it committed during its failed 48-hour coup in April 2002. In those few hours, it tried to replace Chávez with Pedro Carmona, the leader of the businessmen's organisation Fedecamaras. Carmona decided he would not only get rid of a fairly elected president but also abolish the constitution, close the national assembly, sack the supreme court, and dismiss elected mayors and governors.
Today Chávez's opponents gather together in an organisation called Súmate - Join in - but its leader Maria Cristina Machado made a mistake when she sought and was granted a long meeting with President George Bush in the White House earlier this year. Fedecamaras's position is not strong, considering that the government controls Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the state oil industry which is the country's largest business and on which the rest of the economy depends.
The state oil company is almost sinking under the weight of money it is earning. Domestic petrol prices are dirt cheap - it costs only 2 or €3 to fill the biggest car.
While the international oil price hovers about $70 a barrel, oil exports are bringing in massive returns. The US, its main export market, depends on Venezuela for 1.5 million barrels a day, particularly in winter when its oil is vital for heating US homes and offices.
Controlling PDVSA as it does, Chávez's government controls the economy and enjoys enormous patronage over business, politics and almost everything that moves. Opposition politicians finally seem to have realised that, despite occasional grumbling in the army and among officials about the extent of Cuban influence, Chávez will not be removed by force. They have to find a political project capable of challenging his. If they can.
The church has a more complicated relationship with the president, though he has no difficulty in calling himself a Catholic. Many of its leaders, however, were deeply committed to the system where an oil-rich country kept half of its citizens in poverty.
The less prudent of the bishops supported the failed 2002 coup and have criticised, inter alia, Chávez's handling of state subsidies for the religious education network. Mr Chávez has replied by having recourse to Venezuela's concordat with the Vatican, which gives him the power to refuse his consent to episcopal appointments. The archdiocese of Caracas therefore has been without a permanent leader for two years.
However, there are bishops and clergy who publicly praise the good that Chávez is doing. A well known Spanish-born Jesuit, Fr Jesús Gazo, formerly in Caracas but now in remote San Cristóbal, is his spiritual adviser and Mario Moronta, the bishop of San Cristóbal, is a cautious supporter.
Now even Archbishop Nicolás Bermúdez, who is running the Caracas archdiocese ad interim, speaks of "our errors" in the church's relationship with the president. "The church wants him to succeed because that will be a success for the people," he says.
Despite his many failings, notably a failure to attack Venezuela's tradition of corruption effectively, most Venezuelans agree that Chávez is a good thing.