Chechnya war boosts Putin supporters in Russian vote

Supporters of the Russian Prime Minister, Mr Vladimir Putin, have broken the Communist stranglehold on the State Duma with an…

Supporters of the Russian Prime Minister, Mr Vladimir Putin, have broken the Communist stranglehold on the State Duma with an impressive performance in Russia's parliamentary elections. While the Communists came in with an increased vote, their allies were obliterated and the non-Communist opposition to President Yeltsin and Mr Putin performed well below expectations.

The big winners were the pro-government parties: "Unity", under the Emergencies Minister, Mr Sergei Shoigu, and their allies, the Union of Right-Wing Forces, headed by a former prime minister, Mr Sergei Kiriyenko, who was sacked by Mr Yeltsin after the economic meltdown of August 1998. With the help of the ultra-right wing Zhirinovsky Bloc, the pro-government forces could take more than 40 per cent of the seats.

The war in Chechnya and the use of the major TV stations as electoral weapons for the pro-government parties were seen as the main reasons for the success of Mr Putin's supporters. The two big cities, Moscow and St Petersburg, where voters get information from non-government TV Channels, showed markedly different results from the rest of the county.

Fatherland-All Russia (OVR), the main non-communist opposition party, led by another former Prime Minister, Mr Yevgeny Primakov, and the Mayor of Moscow, Mr Yuri Luzhkov, was running at 41 per cent in Moscow, compared with less than 10 per cent in the rest of Russia.

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But the really sensational figures came from St Petersburg. Regarded as the most politically sophisticated region of Russia, the northern capital's first choice was the box provided on ballot papers for those "against all parties". Nearly 14 per cent of Peterburgers took this option, with the pro-western Yabloko party of Mr Grigory Yavlinsky in second place.

The big surprise nationally was the strong showing of Mr Kiriyenko's group. "Our success demonstrates the prevailing liberal orientation of the electorate. It is a victory of those people in Russia who want to live as people do in Western Europe," he said. "At this rate, the `New Right' will be the major force in Russian politics in the elections of 2003."

Although a minor party in the pro-government coalition, Mr Kiriyenko is now almost certain to province the main thrust of economic policy in the pro-Putin alliance.

Almost as remarkable as the pro-government success was the collapse of the non-communist opposition. Fatherland-All Russia, once hailed as an unbeatable combination with Mr Luzhkov and Mr Primakov on the same ticket, performed badly with only 11 per cent, the same figure as Mr Kiriyenko's group, while the Yabloko party of the liberal economist, Mr Grigory Yavlinsky, managed 8 per cent of the poll. The Zhirinovsky bloc was forecast to finish with 5 per cent.

The percentage of seats forecast for the main parties could change significantly in the coming days. Half of the Duma seats are elected on the party list system but the other half is voted in through single seat constituencies on the first-past-the-post system. It will take some days before the single seaters are decided and successful local independents may be involved in horse-trading with the main parties.

Some well-known personalities have already made it to the Duma in the single-seat section of the vote. These include Mr Boris Berezovsky, a billionaire who is regarded as the latter-day Rasputin of Russian politics because of his influence over Mr Yeltsin. Membership of the Duma automatically provides immunity from prosecution.

Seamus Martin

Seamus Martin

Seamus Martin is a former international editor and Moscow correspondent for The Irish Times